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The decade in a word: Gold   (July 11, 2005)


If you had to choose the most important word for the balance of this decade, what would it be? Wie, as in Michelle? Terrorism? Petroleum? My vote goes to gold--not as jewlery, but as a financial hedge against all the bad things which could start unfolding next year. The belief in the inherent value of gold has been dismissed for 25 years as the rantings of "gold bugs," but take a look at this chart (courtesy of Barrons and eSignal) which tracks gold in non-Dollar currencies. It shows what chartists call a "break-out," meaning that gold has broken out of a trading range and is reaching new highs--highs which are cloaked to us in the U.S. by the current strength of the dollar.

Gold is an interesting placeholder of value because you can buy the actual metal in coins, or gold mining stocks, or an exchange-traded fund (ETF) which holds physical gold.

The Establishment (such a 60s word) or the Standard Economic Model (to paraphrase physics) has no use for gold. Everything is absolutely hunky-dory as is--low inflation, rising real estate values, low unemployment--this is the best of all possible economic worlds, and there is little Establishment doubt that any disruption would be short-term and modest in effect.

Uh-huh. Still, I'm sticking with Gold as the key word for the next five years. It's something the "little guy" can buy to protect whatever assets he/she has accumulated--something which cannot be said for perquisites of the wealthy such as hedge funds.


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copyright © 2005 Charles Hugh Smith. All rights reserved in all media.

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