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Musings Report 2018-11 3-17-18 Is Flexibility the Most Valuable Survival Trait?
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
Is Flexibility the Most Valuable Survival Trait?
Charles Darwin summarized natural selection as the "principle by which each slight variation [of a trait], if useful, is preserved."
Though Darwin wrote about inheritable (genetic) traits, language, writing and other cultural tools allow us to pass on cultural and technological developments that are useful in terms of furthering our survival as individuals, families and societies.
A quote widely attributed to Darwin was not actually spoken or written by him: "It Is Not the Strongest of the Species that Survives But the Most Adaptable."
This is an interpretation of Darwin's description of natural selection, and it makes intuitive sense, even if it is not necessarily true in all cases, as many species have thrived by specializing and retaining their specialized traits for tens of millions of years--for example, sharks.
But the idea that traits that provide a species with greater adaptability--the ability to mutate/adapt more quickly than competing species--provide greater utility does align with natural selection. For example, the mutation rate of bacteria is high as a function of their rapid division/life cycle. This increase in variability increases the odds that a few bacteria might have variations that enable survival even in extreme conditions.
In human terms, human groups respond to deteriorating conditions such as drought by moving to areas less affected by drought.
Humans can also pass on cultural adaptations such as digging wells as another solution to drought.
This ability to pass on an enormous range of cultural traits/tools gives humanity a much greater range of adaptability. (Many animals also pass on skills and organizational knowledge to the next generation, but at a smaller scale than human endeavors.)
On the other hand, humans also have a tendency to cling stubbornly to the present set-up and resist adapting to changing circumstances.
The four books I'm currently reading have informed my thinking about adaptability, flexibility and the human trait of clinging to present models even as they fail.
The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire
Daily Life in China on the Eve of the Mongol Invasion, 1250-1276
The Relentless Revolution: A History of Capitalism
Dogs and Demons: Tales from the Dark Side of Japan
The first two books describe extremely successful societies that crumbled, much to the surprise of the residents who naturally reckoned their economies/societies were essentially permanent.
In the case of Rome, the arrival of bubonic plague in 541 AD killed up to half the population in much of the Eastern Empire while a mini-ice age pressured grain production. With the army devastated and the economy in shambles, the Empire was ill-prepared to deal with subsequent invasions.
In the case of Southern Song Dynasty China, the possibility that the Mongols could conquer the entire empire in a few months seemed too remote to even plan for as a contingency.
This history of capitalism emphasizes capitalism's endless dynamic of disrupting existing economies and societies.
The book on Japan discusses Japan's responses to the collapse of its bubble economy in the early 1990s. Though the author is not Japanese, he grew up in Japan and lived there for many years.
In broad brush, the author describes a society that chose not to deal directly with the systemic sources of the bubble and its collapse, choosing instead to maintain the facade of normalcy and the illusion that the existing structure was continuing to function with admirable efficiency and efficacy.
The net result of this inflexibility is the stagnation and mal-adaption that has characterized Japan since the collapse.
Flexibility/adaptability does not guarantee success. There was no possible way for flexibility alone to mitigate losing half your population, a drastic reduction in food supplies and multiple wars / invasions. It's difficult to improve on Emperor Justinian's responses to three decades of crisis and interconnected disasters.
The Song Empire, on the other hand, was poorly prepared, culturally and militarily, to fend off the Mongol military machine. Some basic foresight and defense-in-depth planning might have blunted the invasion and bought time for a more successful response.
The idea that Barbarians could conquer and permanently rule was not taken seriously enough, despite the Mongol's success against the Northern Song Dynasty. This inflexible hubris (and low social status of the military) insured military defeat.
As Karl Marx understood ("Everything solid melts into air"), capitalism's dynamism comes at a high cost: capitalism is a relentless revolution that disrupts societies and economies, even those who attempt to block the disruptions that upend the status quo, which is the story of Japan over the past 30+ years.
It's natural to cling to what's worked so well up to the present, but in periods of tectonic upheaval, clinging to the present/past is not a strategy for successful adaptation.
As I learn more (and get older), I am increasingly convinced the one essential survival trait is flexibility. This is scale-invariant, meaning it is equally true for individuals, families, enterprises, groups, organizations and societies.
Summary of the Blog This Past Week
How Much Longer Can We Get Away With It? 3/16/18
Checking In on the Four Intersecting Cycles 3/14/18
There is No "Free Trade"--There Is Only the Darwinian Game of Trade 3/12/18
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
It finally rained in Northern California. It's highly unlikely to rain enough in the next few months to avoid another drought, but every bit of rain and snow helps.
Market Musings: the Bear Case
Last week I posted charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) that suggested a choppy trading range with a potentially bullish bias.
Here's a chart of the Bearish case: an analog chart of the early 1960s overlaid with the present:
Analog charts are fascinating but not reliable. They can look uncannily accurate until they don't.
That said, technically speaking, it wouldn't be unusual for markets to decline back to their February lows to test support and perhaps set up a tradable double bottom.
It's a possibility worth keeping in mind.
From Left Field
People on Twitter like passing on lies better than they like retweeting the truth (via GFB)
‘Russian Vivian Maier’ Discovered After 30,000 Photos Found in Attic
How the Roman Empire can explain the dramatic rise in state violence (via John D.)
The Best-Selling Musicians of All Time (By US Album Sales)
Why Blockchain Will Survive, Even If Bitcoin Doesn’t -- from the WSJ, no less...
Bitcoin Is Ridiculous. Blockchain Is Dangerous (via Joel M.) -- the conventional view, jazzed up a bit...
Caesar Bloody Caesar (book review, via Joel M.) -- new translation of Caesar's account of his conquests...
World Happiness Report (PDF) (via Maoxian) -- does migration increase the happiness of the migrants, and more...
Home Flippers Pile Into the U.S. Market, Scoring Higher Profits (via Joel M.) Property investors were bullish on the U.S. housing market in 2017, flipping more homes than in any year since 2006, when the real estate bubble that helped upend the global economy was still inflating.
China's Impending Middle Class Boom More Likely To Turn To Bust -- demographics...
Venezuela's Inflation Surges to A New High: 7459%
If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance. (via Maoxian) -- maybe being flexible and opportunistic count for more than talent....
"Power, after love, is the first source of happiness." Stendhal
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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