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Musings Report 2019-18 5-4-19 Transitions Great and Small
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
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The first Musings of the month is a free-form exploration of the reaches of the fecund swamp that is the source of the blog, Musings and my books.
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Transitions Great and Small
A "calabash niece" (not blood related, daughter of a close friend) whom I picked up after elementary school for many years was just accepted into graduate school with a full scholarship after serving a two-year stint in the Peace Corps, and naturally I'm happy for her.
She is navigating the first of three great transitions in modern life, from student-dependent to independent adult. The second is the mid-life/early middle-age re-appraisal where we may transition from the path chosen in our 20s to a new path, or reconcile to the path we chose in our 20s. The third is the transition from late middle age to old age, "retirement" in traditional terms but increasingly a transition to a third phase which may or may not be characterized by leisure activities.
My own niece and her husband recently navigated the mid-life re-appraisal transition, choosing to quit their stable jobs and move to another state, in effect starting over. I'm proud of both of them for taking the risks of a major change; the opportunities to make big changes are not common, so we must grasp them when they arise.
I am navigating the third transition, from active late-middle age to the first reckoning of old age (65). A great many people don't live long enough to get this opportunity for transition, so I'm grateful for the chance.
There is nothing set in stone about these transitions, or their number; some people might have three transitions in any one phase.
But the core transitions are not entirely optional: you can't stay in high school your entire life (though some people may try to stay in college much of their life). We can't ignore dissatisfaction with a career or relationship in mid-life, nor can we ignore having reached goals in mid-life, and the emptiness that follows success. Getting old is also not optional, and while we can cling to our job title in some cases far into old age, that doesn't mean we've stopped aging.
These are great transitions in individual lives, often assembled of small transitions.
There are also great transitions in political-socio-economic systems, also generally assembled of small transitions. Much like the natural world, these human systems track an S-Curve of rapid expansion, maturation and decline.
Robust, adaptable human systems can renew themselves in the decay / decline phase, but it takes the equivalent of a revolution--either in leadership, a revolution in morals (what's acceptable in the elite governing class), or a revolution in energy sources (such as the discovery of cheap oil) or in a productivity-boosting technology.
Absent some revolutionizing dynamic, decline leads to collapse.
I think we can track these three phases of political-socio-economic systems by observing the changes in the ethics, behaviors and dominant narratives of the ruling elites within any system.
In the expansion phase, sacrifices on behalf of the nation-state, tribe, empire, etc. are required of the leadership: the worthiness of an individual's access to power is based on their willingness to sacrifice their fortune and even their life to defend or expand the system.
For an example, look to the early Roman Republic: the percentage of the ruling class killed in combat at the disaster of Cannae was higher than that of common soldiers.
In the maturation phase, the ruling elites consolidate their power, and use the power of the state to further their own personal wealth and influence.
In the decline phase, this use of state power to serve one's own wealth and power accelerates.
The wealth of Roman senators went from about 10 or 20 times that of a commoner landholder/artisan to 10,000 times that of a free property-holding commoner in the waning days of the Empire.
Two other dynamics dominate in the decline phase:
1. The ruling elites start "fudging" reports and manipulating narratives to mask their self-aggrandizement and the erosion of the nation / empire under their self-interested rule.
In other words, the elites know the public would resist their leadership if the truth were widely known, so the ruling elite devotes increasing attention to massaging the news to reflect positively on their self-serving leadership.
Since the weaknesses of the empire are being hidden, they cannot be addressed, and so rot that could have been fixed early becomes widespread and fatal.
2. Flush with Imperial wealth and power, the ruling elite splinters into warring camps which squander the empire's remaining wealth on private battles over which camp will rule the roost.
As the elites battle it out, the nation / empire falls apart as the leadership's focus is on internecine conflicts, rather than on preserving what remains of the empire's wealth and security.
Where are the nations of the world in this spectrum? I think it's obvious virtually every nation is in the decline phase, with either a kleptocratic, autocratic leadership, or a ruling elite at war with itself over the control of what remains of the nation's power and wealth.
The transition to collapse awaits unless a moral revolution or equivalent restructuring of leadership and power occurs within the next decade.
Highlights of the Blog This Past Week
Income Inequality and the Decline of the Middle Class in Two Charts 5/3/19
The Accelerating Decay of the Middle Class 5/2/19
‘Workarounds’ Galore: How Real Americans Deal with ‘Real’ Inflation 5/1/19
The Erosion of Everyday Life 4/30/19
There Are Two Little Problems with "Taxing the Rich" to Pay for "Free Everything" 4/29/19
From Left Field
'Moneyland' Reveals How Oligarchs, Kleptocrats And Crooks Stash Fortunes (via Nicole D.)
Moneyland: The Inside Story of the Crooks and Kleptocrats Who Rule the World (book)
Why “overthrowing capitalism” would not avert climate change
Does India need to shift its capital from smog-choked Delhi?
With the city becoming increasingly unliveable and no hope of improvement, it may be time for drastic measures.
In China, Shows Like “Story of Yanxi Palace” Go Viral, and the Party Is Not Amused
How Big is the Problem of Tax Evasion?
Italy Becoming Poor -- Becoming Poor in Italy. (Ugo Bardi)
‘A fully automated society is science fiction’—Michael D. Yates on the state of U.S. labor
The U.S. Military: Like the French at Agincourt? America risks a catastrophic defeat if it doesn’t radically change the way it thinks about war.
How Millennials Became The Burnout Generation: I couldn’t figure out why small, straightforward tasks on my to-do list felt so impossible. The answer is both more complex and far simpler than I expected.
Why Does Time Seem Like It's Speeding Up?
China’s Algorithms of Repression: Reverse Engineering a Xinjiang Police Mass Surveillance App
Coping With World Bank-Led Financialization (via LaserLefty)
"Don't bend; don't water it down; don't try to make it logical; don't edit your own soul according to the fashion. Rather, follow your most intense obsessions mercilessly." Franz Kafka
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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