|
|
Musings Report 2019-38 9-21-19 Will Social Disorder Dominate the 2020s?
You are receiving this email because you are one of the 500+ subscribers/major contributors to www.oftwominds.com.
For those who are new to the Musings reports: they are basically a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
Thank You, Contributors!
Thank you, Ted C. for your very generous steadfast support of my work.
Will Social Disorder Dominate the 2020s?
Longtime readers know I often cite Peter Turchin's work on long cycles of economic-social expansion/increasing order and alternating periods of decline and increasing disorder.
Turchin is an advocate of cliodynamics, a scientific-evidence based approach to historical macrosociology that uses the tools of "mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies."
Turchin has many critics, who believe the evidence he cites for predictable civilizational cycles is cherry-picked, i.e. an expression of selection bias rather than science.
Turchin has presented his evidence in a number of papers and books. He has found that population and warfare are correlated: wars tend to follow population peaks. His analysis is not unique; others have found strong correlations between a large population of young unmarried men (i.e. the pool of potential soldiers, sailors and marines) and warfare.
In 2010, Turchin laid out his schema of cycles (50 years and 150-200 years) and predicted the decade of the 2020s would be characterized by increasing social discord and disorder.
As we approach 2020, his theory is about to be tested. (Turchin views the election of Donald Trump as a precursor of rising social discord.)
Turchin's 50-year cycle--his "short" cycle--arises in a much longer cycle of 150 to 200 years which tend to mark the rise and fall of dynasties and epochs. He reckons the late 1960s and early 1970s were the most recent apogee of social unrest, and so 1970 + 50 = 2020.
Recall that there are other cyclical theories with persuasive advocates: the Kondratieff "seasonal" economic cycle of about 60-70 years, and the Fourth Turning cycle of 80 years. Proponents point out factors that can elongate cycles, for example, unprecedented central bank intervention in markets stopped the Kondratieff "winter" from starting in 2000. (1929 + 70 = 1999.) In this view, the Kondratieff cycle has been delayed 20 years by central banks but not rescinded.
I find most of Turchin's work persuasive, but the 50-year cycle doesn't fit history all that well: 1970 works, but 1920 was the start of a decade long boom; the period of social unrest (labor strikes, etc.) was 20 years earlier around 1900. Then 1920 - 50 = 1870, and one could point to financial panics and Reconstruction following the Civil War as signs of social discord, but 1870 - 50 = 1820, the "era of good feelings" that was remarkably devoid of social disorder. Subtract another 50 and we have 1770, an era that culminated in the Revolutionary War.
Putting the cycles together, a case can be made that society--roughly speaking, the human herd--is becoming restive and unsettled, and increasingly prone to mindless stampedes.
All three of these cycles point to 2020 as a turning point and the coming decade as critical, perhaps even to the point of an existential crisis for nations and the entire debt-dependent, hydrocarbon-based global civilization: Turchin targeted 2020 a decade ago, Kondratieff has a 20-year delay that's overdue and The Fourth Turning identified 2020 as the turning point.
What I find worrisome is the herd's propensity for the irrationality of stampedes: humans have a disconcerting propensity for seeking a scapegoat or enemy that can be blamed for history's turn of the wheel. Once the stampede starts, individuals find themselves fighting people who they would otherwise bond with, given various commonalities of culture, class, etc.
As I wrote this week in the blog, rigid orthodoxies arise in periods of social disorder to tighten discipline in the "tribe" and eradicate any dissent or questioning of the tribe's canon.
This herd mentality generates a self-reinforcing all-or-nothing "you're either with us or against us" loyalty to whatever herd or tribe seems to offer the most security in an increasingly insecure world. We can discern this in the political sphere, where "wokesters" revile Trump and his supporters, rejecting any common ground, and Trump's "deplorables" feel the same about the progressive "wokesters."
I see the FIRE movement--financial independence, retire early--as a tribal response to a decaying, insecure economy: get the heck out before the economy either collapses or burns you to a crisp via work/life overload.
If history is any guide--and I think it is the only evidence-based guide--those who are wary of getting stampeded will opt out, withdraw, and seek the relative shelter of the modern-day equivalents of monasteries, largely self-sustaining communities bound by belief/faith and self-interest.
As the Western Roman Empire decayed, those who tired of being tax donkeys (a form of indentured labor) fled to the protection of monasteries, where life was simple and hard but easier and safer than going down with the Imperial ship.
There are few if any signs of such secular havens in the present landscape, but perhaps this is a trend that will enter the public consciousness in the mid-2020s if social disorder goes parabolic.
Highlights of the Blog
The New Orthodoxy: Blasphemy, Heresy and the New Inquisition 9/19/19
Markets That Live by the Fed, Die by the Fed 9/17/19
What a Relief that the U.S. and Global Economies Are Booming 9/13/19
The Inevitable Bursting of Our Bubble Economy 9/11/19
How Deep Is the Rot in America's Institutions? 9/9/19
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Fresh apple pie--a real luxury. Billionaires might have pastry chefs but they can't get anything better than this....
Musings on the Economy: Recession or No Recession?
We're at an interesting juncture where those seeking evidence of recession can find plenty of data to support their claim and those who seek data supporting the view that the economy is still chugging along and there won't be a recession can also find evidence to support their claim.
In other words, selection bias is a key factor. Manufacturing is trending down--recessionary--but housing starts remain robust--no recession.
Personally, I look for anecdotal evidence in discretionary spending: tourism, AirBnB bookings, dining out, etc.
Recall that the top 10% households earn 50% of the income and account for roughly half of consumer spending. As a result, any weakening in this upper-middle-class spending will be recessionary, as a great many jobs depend on discretionary spending.
The top 10% also own 93% of the stocks owned by households. This means the "wealth effect" plays a significant role in top 10% behavior: if stocks, bonds and housing are rising, this class feels wealthier and spends accordingly. As stocks, bonds and housing soften or crater, they feel less wealthy and tighten spending accordingly.
Anecdotally, I'm hearing reports of declining vacation bookings and half-empty restaurants. If the stock market swoons, that could reverse "the wealth effect" and the spending of those who have the most discretionary income to spend or save.
From Left Field
Who Would I Be Without Instagram? An investigation. (via GFB) -- a long and insightful account of the Instagram economy and society by an insider / "influencer"...
The Cantillon Effect: Because of Inflation, We’re Financing the Financiers-- to understand the modern economy, start with the Cantillion Effect....
XAg launch spray drones at University of Sydney field day (via Bart D.) -- precision guided drones identify weeds and swoop down to deliver a dose of herbicide... not too difficult to imagine this technology with high explosives and a different set of targets....
What College Admissions Offices Really Want: Elite schools say they’re looking for academic excellence and diversity. But their thirst for tuition revenue means that wealth trumps all. -- the sordid self-serving reality of "higher education"--one of the most predatory rackets going....
Peter Buffett Calls Charity a “Perpetual Poverty Machine”--gotta love philanthro-capitalism....
How Democrats Killed Their Populist Soul: In the 1970s, a new wave of post-Watergate liberals stopped fighting monopoly power. The result is an increasingly dangerous political system. -- not entirely persuasive but interesting...
The Post-Antibiotic Era Is Here. Now What? The war of resistance might be lost, but computational modeling is helping doctors and scientists predict and contain new bacterial threats.
Private Government: How Employers Rule Our Lives (and Why We Don't Talk about It) (book)
The complete list of alternatives to all Google products
Middle East drones signal end to era of fast jet air supremacy -- not quite this simple; drones don't necessarily replace supersonic aircraft, they create an asymmetric low-cost delivery system for small-scale precision strikes....
For the sake of life on Earth, we must put a limit on wealth-- the $400 million super-yachts and private aircraft are creating blowback....
New technology allows fleets to double fishing capacity -- and deplete fish stocks faster....
"Altogether too often, people substitute opinions for facts and emotions for analysis." Andy Grove
Thanks for reading--
charles |
|
|
|
|
|
