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Musings Report 2019-43 10-26-19 Crisis and Punctuated Equilibrium
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Crisis and Punctuated Equilibrium
Punctuated Equilibrium is a key dynamic in natural selection: the rate at which species "innovate" (i.e. generate genetic diversity) and adapt (i.e. spin off subspecies or acquire new genetic characteristics) is not uniform: long periods of stability with very little adaptive churn may be punctuated by sudden bursts of innovation and adaptation.
This makes sense: Nature conserves what's working and is risk-averse, following the dictum "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." If the environment doesn't change, there's not much selective pressure to innovate. (Genetic drift can change small populations or populations that experience bottlenecks in a semi-random fashion, but this discussion is focused on selective pressures.)
When the environment changes drastically, species that are suddenly mal-adapted must innovate / adapt or they will die off.
Genetic modifications take generations, and so rapid changes favor organisms with short life spans such as bacteria and insects. As a generality, organisms either specialize to maximize the food/energy in a niche, or they conserve traits that enable them to adapt to a variety of conditions. Specialists tend to die off once their niche vanishes, while generalists (cockroaches, rats, etc.) tend to survive even drastic changes in the environment.
The idea that human cultures / societies follow the same selective dynamics makes sense, as cultures/societies are human adaptations that enable the species to conserve useful innovations (via knowledge and skills that can be passed on to the next generation) without waiting for genetic variability to come up with solutions.
Culture/society is an alternative "software" means (as opposed to genetic encoding "hardware") for generating innovations and conserving adaptations that enable the species to survive rapidly changing conditions.
Cultural adaptations such as agriculture may seep into genetic coding (or more likely, into epigenetic encoding), but they are mostly "software"--cultural knowledge of tools and techniques that changes as outsiders bring new ideas/tools and homegrown improvements spread through the culture.
Cultural adaptation isn't static; new crops and techniques can arrive, be adopted and spread far and wide, but knowledge can also be lost or abandoned if it no longer works, or the resources are no longer available to keep the social system functioning.
Recent LIDAR (laser measurements) data from aircraft has revealed that the Mayan society had much more extensive agricultural workings than previously estimated, and so the mystery of this immense society's collapse deepens. Current thinking is that a long-term drought led to the downfall, as the region's porous limestone limits the presence of drought-easing bodies of fresh water such as rivers and lakes (i.e. above-ground water storage; the Mayans apparently made use of subterranean cisterns).
We can guess that there were no alternative agricultural strategies or crops that the Mayans could adopt on a scale large enough to support the monumental populations required to maintain the society's urban/temple centers.
But there may have been changes in the social order--warring city-states, elites that no longer cooperated with each other, the rise of resource-wasting temple-building, etc.--that tipped the environmental pressures into collapse.
Extremely successful cultures can fail to adapt to major changes in their environment for reasons beyond physical challenges. While drought and pandemics appear to be common causes of cultural collapse, there is also evidence that social factors can spell the difference between successful adaptation and collapse.
For example, as Michael Grant argued in his book "The Fall of the Roman Empire," disunity in the ruling elites crippled Rome's ability to deal with crises that it would have been able to handle when society was united in purpose.
One of the key traits of successful adaptation may well be the culture's appetite for risk--letting go of what was successful in favor of experimentation--and an aptitude for social unity so any needed changes can be adopted rapidly, rather than resisted by entrenched elites who are keener to defend their interests than they are to accept changes essential to the survival of the entire society.
Which leads us to punctuated equilibrium, the ability to rapidly generate innovations, conduct experiments and then quickly adopt the best solutions throughout the society. Even if this capability exists, Grant's book is a warning that social disunity can cripple this process.
While some of this resistance to desperately needed adaptations can be attributed to human short-sightedness and greed, complacency (no need to take risks because most troubles vanish on their own, etc.) and risk aversion (why take a chance when we don't absolutely need to?), the Progress Trap may play a role: what worked so well in the past will keep working, we believe, if only we trust the lessons of the past and redouble our efforts.
In some cases, this faith in what worked in the past is justified; sometimes we get lazy and sloppy, and so returning to the tried-and-true rights the ship. But there is no "one size fits all" solution: just as clinging to the past can lead to failure, so can a hasty embrace of innovations that don't solve the problems generated by changing conditions.
When crises arise, the luxuries of incremental adjustments and leisurely experimentation may be lost: enormous gambles may have to be made with insufficient evidence. By the time some certainty can be reached, the crisis may have already triggered collapse.
Societies with no capacity for rapid innovation and experimentation are doomed in crisis: they are too sclerotic, too rigid, too fearful, too dominated by self-serving elites and too wedded to past glories.
Crises are relatively rare events, and so the capacity to rise to the challenge has to be conserved within the structures of society. There must be mechanisms and cultural values that allow or encourage a rapid response that is powerful enough to overcome the elites' desire to keep everything as-is to preserve their perquisites and power.
Societies may have structures that enable an effective response when one crisis arises--for example, drought can be countered with grain reserves and water storage--but they may be overwhelmed by a confluence of crises--for example, drought, invasion and a new disease that arrived with traders from distant lands.
Such a confluence of crises would likely require a spike of innovation and adaptation--incremental changes within the status quo may not be enough.
Periods of rapid innovation can also be triggered by novel ideas and inventions arriving from another culture or by a windfall of resources that funds the flowering of social diversity and experimentation. The European Renaissance was stimulated by new wealth generated by trading, the rediscovery and distribution of ancient Roman and Greek classics and the expansion of knowledge made possible by the printing press and increasing literacy. This complex confluence enabled an explosion of social and economic innovations that created the modern world.
Which brings us to the present. It can be argued that the relative stagnation of "growth" at the end of the 20th century led to the innovations of financialization, which have reached diminishing returns as unintended consequences (soaring wealth inequality for example) undermine the social order.
It could also be argued that the 1950s era social order and economy was mal-adapted to the changing conditions of the 1960s, and as a result the postwar equilibrium was punctuated by an explosion of innovations, experiments and adaptations: the Counterculture, civil rights, womens liberation and the stirrings of technology innovations that led to the Internet.
Are we due for another spike of innovation, experimentation and adaptation as the era of globalized neoliberal financialization reaches its limits? The root meaning of the word "crisis" is a turning point, a decisive moment, a perilous situation when one should be especially wary. It certainly feels like crises are building globally.
It's not clear to me that our society retains the potential for radical transformation,or that the confluence of social, economic, energy and environmental crises can be resolved by doing more of what worked in the past. The decisive moments are still ahead of us.
Highlights of the Blog
The Unraveling Quickens 10/23/19
Prying Open the Overton Window 10/21/19
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Harvested four large potatoes from our small tub garden--plastic tubs filled with dirt on an automated dripline. I confess to being amazed at the great size and quality of the harvest from such a modest-sized garden.
Some of these became pommes de terre Lyonnaise
From Left Field
Facebook isn’t free speech, it’s algorithmic amplification optimized for outrage -- exactly...
The Birthplace Of 'Gross National Happiness' Is Growing A Bit Cynical
Professor of education reveals a disturbing trend in kindergartens around the US
Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working? Are the wealthy addicted to money, competition, or just feeling important? Yes.
World economy is sleepwalking into a new financial crisis, warns Mervyn King Past crashes spawned new thinking and reform but nothing has changed since 2008 banking meltdown, says former Bank of England boss.
The American Economy RIP -- good overview of economic dynamics that are ignored / poorly understood...
Everyone Is a Russian Asset: America laughed at Hillary Clinton’s remarks about Tulsi Gabbard, but her ideas fit perfectly in the intellectual mainstream.
Superhero films are 'cynical exercise' to make profits for corporations – Ken Loach. -- stating the obvious here, but the appeal of endless comic superheroes suggests something disturbing about the culture...
A Million People Are Jailed at China's Gulags. I Managed to Escape. Here's What Really Goes on Inside -- money talks, hence the silence of Islamic nations who hope to benefit from China's expansion....
A Guide to Statistics on Historical Trends in Income Inequality-- this is the kind of source material I pore over...
Why You Never See Your Friends Anymore: Our unpredictable and overburdened schedules are taking a dire toll on American society. -- left unsaid: you could opt out of the corporate rat-race and find a way to live on less than a couple hundred thou a year...
The Demographic Depression Will Overwhelm Central Bankers Over The Upcoming Decade -- important work by Chris Hamilton...
"A man who has never gone to school may steal from a freight car; but if he has a university education, he may steal the whole railroad." Theodore Roosevelt
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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