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Musings Report 2020-9 2-29-20 The Devil's Dilemma: Science, Pandemic and Global Depression
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The Devil's Dilemma: Science, Pandemic and Global Depression
The present disconnect between the science of Covid-19 and the status quo's complacency is truly crazy-making, as we face a binary situation: either the science is correct and the complacent status quo is wrong, or the science is false and the complacent status quo is correct that the virus is no big deal and nothing to fret about.
Complacency is ubiquitous: readers on Facebook leave comments on my posts "this is silly." Correspondents report that people jammed together in airport lounges don't even cover their mouths when coughing, much less use a tissue. People keep repeating like a mantra that a bad flu season kills 35,000 in the U.S. alone, and so why worry about a couple thousand Covid-19 deaths globally?
Another common trope is "hepatitis kills far more people in the U.S., so why worry about the coronavirus?"
So let's look at some data and consider what math and science can tell us about the Covid-19 virus.
According to the CDC, viral hepatitis B caused 5,600 deaths in the U.S. in 2017, and hepatitis C caused 19,000 deaths, for a total of 24,600. That certainly exceeds reported deaths of Covid-19, but since the statistics presented by the Chinese government are unreliable, we have no idea how many people have the virus and how many have died.
According to the CDC, influenza and pneumonia together caused 55,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2017.
The fallacy made by the complacent is that the number of cases will remain small (in the dozens or hundreds) and so the number of deaths will also remain small.
Since the evidence suggests the Covid-19 virus is more contagious than conventional flu viruses, it's reasonable to assume that it will eventually infect more people than a conventional flu, which according to the CDC infects up to 45 million Americans annually.
Let's do a Pareto Distribution (80/20 rule) projection and estimate that 20% of the the U.S. population will get Covid-19. That's 66 million people, roughly 50% higher than the 45 million who catch a flu virus in a "bad flu" season.
Data from a variety of sources suggests about 2% of all Covid-19 cases end in death, but the deaths are concentrated in the 20% of all cases that become severe and require hospitalization.
2% of 66 million is 1.3 million, so if Covid-19 infects only 20% of the U.S. populace, current data suggests 1.3 million people will die. This is considerably more than 24,600,or 55,000. (Total annual deaths in the U.S. are around 2.8 million.)
But these mortality data are drawn from small numbers of patients who have had access to intensive care. Anecdotal evidence from places where the healthcare system has been overwhelmed (Wuhan) so intensive care is unavailable to the majority of severely ill patients suggest much higher death rates around 15%, with worst-case scenarios going as high as 80% mortality for untreated severe cases in vulnerable populations (elderly and chronically ill).
If 20% of all cases can be expected to be severe and require hospitalization/intensive care (20% of 66 million is 13 million people), then intensive care will quickly become unavailable due to the low number of intensive care beds in the U.S. (94,000). The total number of all hospital beds in the U.S. is around 931,000.
If 15% of untreated severely ill patients die, that is 13 million X 15% = 1.95 million.
Let's cut all these numbers in half and assume only 10% of the U.S. populace gets the Covid-19 virus (33 million), so only 6.6 million people become severely ill. If 15% of untreated severely ill patients eventually die, that's 1 million deaths in the U.S. alone.
In other words, the death rate is only low if the number of severely ill patients remains very low. Once the number of patients needing hospitalization exceeds the number of ICU beds, the death rate leaps dramatically.
All this assumes there are not more lethal variants in some human populations, and it also ignores the issue of re-infection: A tour guide in Japan tested positive for the coronavirus for a 2nd time, less than a month after recovering.
The science suggests a significant percentage of the human populace will eventually get the Covid-19 virus. Estimates run from 40% to 70%; You're Likely to Get the Coronavirus (The Atlantic).
Authorities are well aware of the potential for the Covid-19 to spread rapidly and cause a great many deaths. But they're also concerned about the consequences of an economic crash as people avoid public places (i.e. "social distancing") as the most effective preventative measure to reduce the chances of contracting the virus.
The resulting layoffs and business closures will trigger financial and economic consequences that may not be recoverable if these trends self-reinforce (more layoffs cause consumption to decline, triggering more layoffs, etc.).
I wrote about this on February 11: China's Fatal Dilemma.
But it may be less of a dilemma and more of an inevitability: if authorities downplay the Covid-19 pandemic and encourage people to continue flying, gathering in public, etc. in order to keep the economy humming, that will accelerate the spread of the virus.
When people awaken to the dangers of the pandemic (for example, when ICU beds are all filled and severely ill patients are being turned away), they will panic and pursue "social distancing" regardless of what officials say. When complacency gives way to panic (yes, it can happen here and yes, it can happen to you), the economy will crash anyway.
In other words, the economy will crash either way, what we might call the Devil's Dilemma: if authorities force "social distancing" to limit the spread of the virus the economy will crash, and if they downplay the pandemic and let the virus spread to the point that people panic and "socially distance" themselves regardless of official entreaties, the economy will crash.
Common sense suggests the current status quo complacency is misplaced, and efforts should be made to minimize the risk of getting the virus until a reliable vaccine is available, which those with experience in the field suggest might be a year or 18 months away.
Authorities pushing complacency as a short-term financial panacea are doing an enormous disservice to the people who entrusted them with power. The more effective strategy would be to prepare to deal with a global economic depression while limiting the spread of the virus by whatever means are available, which at present boils down to social distancing and increased hygiene.
Here is the level of complacency that's ubiquitous in the U.S.: an individual returns from Japan, develops symptoms of Covid-19 three days later, tests negative for conventional flu and other viruses, the CDC refuses to test for Covid-19, hospital staff tells the patient to go home by whatever transport he/she normally uses, i.e. public transportation in NYC. My COVID-19 Story. Brooklyn.
So either the science is wrong and I'm crazy, or the science is correct and status quo complacency is crazy. We'll know who's crazy/correct within the next few months.
Highlights of the Blog
Could the Covid-19 Pandemic Collapse the U.S. Healthcare System? 2/27/20
The Economic Cataclysm Ahead 2/26/20
How Many Cases of Covid-19 Will It Take For You to Decide Not to Frequent Public Places? 2/25/20
No, The Fed Will Not "Save the Market"--Here's Why 2/24/20
When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable? 2/23/20
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
After months of procrastination, finally harvested and stir-fried a batch of fresh sweet potato leaves--much like spinach or ong choy in taste, a bit drier in texture so a tablespoon of water and covering the pan is recommended.
Sweet potato is a wonderful permaculture crop if your climate is suitable. It's hardy and fast growing, and provides new leaves as a leafy vegetable and the sweet potatoes as root crops.
From Left Field
Government Agency Warns Global Oil Industry Is on the Brink of a Meltdown: We are not running out of oil, but it's becoming uneconomical to exploit it—another reason we need to move to renewables as quickly as possible.
The make believe future--energy and technology....
If You Think It's Bad for Mainstream Democrats Now, Just Wait.
How Capitalism Underdeveloped Rural America. -- A massively under-reported story...
The End of the Dream: "Too many people have realized that expert opinions are simply another form of corporate public relations, meant to promote someone else's bottom line at their expense, and have learned to ignore claims to expertise that contradict their own lived experience."
Panicking about societal collapse? Plunder the bookshelves
Trump Administration Sees No Threat to Economy From Monopolies (via Adam T.)
Revealed: quarter of all tweets about climate crisis produced by bots. -- and what about all the other tweets on other topics?....
S.F. Bay Area dissatisfaction: Rich, poor, young and old unhappy here (via LaserLefty) -- 45% considering leaving, 10% planning to leave... what happens to these numbers when the economy craters?....
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus: Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
The China Apocalypse: plague and locusts, a nasty one-two punch....
Russia Isn't Dividing Us — Our Leaders Are: A last-ditch effort to derail the Sanders campaign fails as voters finally reject the Russia con.
"If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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