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Musings Report 2021-41 10-9-21 When Risk and Opportunity Become Personal
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they're a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
Thank You, Patrons and Contributors!
Thank you longtime stalwart subscribers Pradeep A., Brian M. and Theodore C. and welcome new patrons / subscribers James L., William J., Dennis S., Tom L., Dennis G., Bryan V., Ariel C. and Paul G. -- thank you very much!
When Risk and Opportunity Become Personal
The Chinese characters that comprise the equivalent of "crisis" are famously--and incorrectly--translated as "danger" and "opportunity."
This mis-translation has reached the peculiar prominence of being repeated often enough to be taken as accurate, but according to Wikipedia and other sources, the more accurate translation is "precarious" plus "change point." (Chinese speakers may be able to shed even more light on each characters' shades of meaning.)
The American attachment to "crisis" equaling "danger" and "opportunity" is easy to understand: the American "can do" culture is fond of optimistic calls to action ("when life hands you lemons, make lemonade," etc.) and so crisis presenting opportunity fits this ideology perfectly.
As for danger: that's the necessary impetus to grab the opportunity.
Lost in this cheerleading of great opportunities just waiting beneath an oil slick of danger is the possibility that the precariousness of imminent change guaranteeing great opportunities might be wishful thinking.
There is no guarantee that "crisis" is only 10% danger / precarity and 90% unalloyed opportunity; it might just as well be 90% precarity and 10% extremely risky opportunity where the odds of failure exceed those of success.
My preferred portmanteau of crisis is risk and opportunity because risk is the essential yin to opportunity's yang: every opportunity to succeed is equally an opportunity to fail.
America's optimistic "can do" culture processes this potential for failure in two ways:
1. Since "He who will not risk cannot win" (John Paul Jones), and winning is the goal, then risk is just part of the package.
2. Glorify failure as the essential stepping stone to success: "Fail often, fail fast" (or as coined by John C. Maxwell, "Fail early, fail often, but always fail forward").
While overcoming repeated failures is indeed the path of progress, it is not teleological, meaning that failing often and failing fast does not necessarily end in success; it may end in a failure so complete that there are no longer the resources available to recover.
Combining precariousness and an unstable, teetering point of profound change with risk and opportunity gets us closer to a realistic assessment of the present moment, for it captures the reality that doing nothing isn't a guarantee of safety; hoping that doing nothing is a way to avoid risk is to misunderstand the risks implicit in precarity and instability.
In my analysis, the large-scale structures of globalized supply chains, financialization, debt-funded speculation and the destabilizing consequences of extreme inequality are all perched on the precarious edge of fundamental change.
We don't control these large-scale forces, of course, but we do control our response to their phase-shift / decay / collapse. This makes risk and opportunity personal.
If we grasp that doing nothing might be disastrous as taking bold action, we get close to the nature of risk and the inherent uncertainty of the outcome, no matter what course of action we choose.
That said, the lower one's dependency on precarious systems, the lower one's exposure to risks we can't control. The lower one's consumption, the lower one's vulnerability. The lower one's debt (with zero debt being the lowest risk position), the lower one's exposure to the risk of bad things happening financially.
The lower the population density, the lower the risk of herd mentality running amok. The greater the quantity of food grown within walking distance, the lower the risk of starvation.
These observations are not cheerleading the embrace of risk and failure as the sure-fire pathway to success; they're pursuits of lowering the risk of failure by reducing exposure to vulnerabilities, dependencies and fragile points of precarity.
Even if we can't reduce our exposure to risk in this moment, we can brainstorm Plan B and Plan C--potential responses to risks rising and opportunities diminishing.
The opportunity to lower our exposure to risk is always present in some fashion, and that's the opportunity that becomes most attractive when precarity and change-points become the order of the day.
Highlights of the Blog
podcasts/videos:
The Failure of the Federal Reserve and Rising Secular Inflation (31:16) (with Richard Bonugli, FRA Roundtable)
Four Tsunami Waves About To Hit At Once (40 minutes) (with Gordon Long)
Posts:
Life's a Beach Until the Tsunami Hits: Four Waves Nobody Cares About--Yet 10/8/21 (100+K views on Zero Hedge)
Why Shortages Are Permanent: Global Supply Shortages Make Fantastic Financial Sense 10/6/21 (170+K views on Zero Hedge)
Risk Was Never Low, It Was Only Hidden 10/4/21
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Longtime supporter Theodore C. kindly emailed me these words of praise: "I've been following you since the "Survival+" guide days, and you've been consistently ahead of the curve. But never a doomer, always a bloomer, which I appreciate."
"Never a doomer, always a bloomer" really struck a chord, for though my critiques and predictions (what isn't sustainable will end, etc.) come across as doomer, my own perception of my work is "bloomer," seeking solutions, step one of which is making an accurate diagnosis of the problem and step two, avoiding the attractions of wishful thinking.
Thank you, Ted, for the kind words and encouragement.
From Left Field
Bitcoin to Bucks: Crypto Fans Borrow to Buy Homes, Cars—and More Crypto
China Detains Business Chiefs as Its Corporate Crusade Expands
In search of ‘Lithium Valley’: why energy companies see riches in the California desert
By now, you’ve probably heard that global supply chains are in a state of disarray. -- excellent overview of the complexities of the supply chain...
The Kremlin’s Strange Victory: How Putin Exploits American Dysfunction and Fuels American Decline
Fallingwater - a look at Frank Lloyd Wright's architectural masterpiece
Long Covid is a bigger problem than we thought
How ‘wonder material’ graphene became a national security concern
Andrey Fursov: “The paths of capital and capitalism have diverged”
Pinker’s progress: the celebrity scientist at the centre of the culture wars -- self-satisfied apologist makes good....
‘Most Americans Today Believe the Stock Market Is Rigged, and They’re Right’--New research shows insider trading is everywhere. So far, no one seems to care. -- because they're making bank by front-running the rigged market... as long as it only goes up, they won't care....
Facebook bans developer behind Unfollow Everything tool (The Verge, via GFB) -- how much longer before FB critics start having bizarre "accidents"?...
"Every time I hear a political speech or I read those of our leaders, I am horrified at having, for years, heard nothing which sounded human." Albert Camus
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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