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Musings Report 2021-52 12-20-21 Precautionary Prudence
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they're a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
SPECIAL YEAR-END REPORT: Precautionary Prudence
I want to share some information on Omicron with you, in particular evidence that Omicron is far more concerning than is generally being reported.
My intention is not to change your conclusions about Covid or your political views. I am simply presenting timely information for you to consider.
My intention is not to arouse fear. I am simply pointing out that one foot of the tall ladder is on unpredictable, unstable ground. Precautionary prudence calls for either moving the ladder to more secure ground or propping up the insecure foot. This has nothing to do with fear, it's simply making an objective observation, performing basic risk analysis and taking prudent steps to reduce needless risk.
One advantage of the blog is many people offer their expertise or experience to help me understand complex issues. In the case of Covid and healthcare in general, the sources I trust most are those in the front lines and those with personal contacts (for example, retired MDs still in touch with colleagues) in the front lines. The MDs and nurses reporting their direct experience confidentially are not required to get approval from a chain of command that may be influenced by all sorts of self-interested intermediaries. The people working in hospitals and clinics are not filtering information from outside sources--information which can be cherry-picked to support a pre-selected narrative--they're reporting what they're seeing.
Here's the information and sources I consider worthy of sharing with you.
Omicron is incredibly contagious and not as "mild" as we've been told: here are a few of the twitter threads my well-informed (i.e. science-healthcare professionals) readers are sending me:
https://twitter.com/MLS_Dave/status/1472427989065416704
"7 days ago our clinical lab in Cleveland had its first positive identification of the Omicron variant, 1 sample. Yesterday Omicron accounted for half of the >1000 positive COVID-19 PCR tests in our labs. We now know 1 thing for sure about Omicron: it's incredibly contagious."
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1472589879179677700
Omicron is being compared to measles- this chart is some perspective on what that means. This was made about a year ago with original COVID-19. The implications are terrifying @DrEricDing
My sources say that folks inside the CDC are whispering that #Omicron is now **as contagious or more contagious than MEASLES**. We epidemiologists have been muttering it for a week. I haven’t heard any CDC or govt official admit on Television yet. They should —people need to hear it."
From one positive test to 500 (50% of all positives) in a week is sobering.
As you know, the problem is anyone can be an asymptomatic carrier without knowing it. There are plenty of accounts of triple-vaxxed people still getting sick and infecting others. The vaccines greatly reduce deaths but they're leaky, and some evidence suggests the boosters start losing efficacy in as little as 3 weeks and have lost much of their efficacy in 3 months.
The other problem is Omicron is spreading so fast that authorities can't keep up, so the reporting of cases is far behind the actual spread. My concern is that by the time we're told there's one omicron case in our county, 500 people will already have it.
Since we care for my 90-year old Mom-in-law here in our home, we don't want to inadvertently bring Omicron home. A well-informed and generous reader sent us very comfortable N95 masks, Filti is the brand. Nothing less than N95 is useful against Omicron. We only wear these N95 masks now.
These sources are worth a look:
Interesting video of airborne spread of a sneeze:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1471054758085632002
Omicron dismissed by the media as "mild":
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1470688302965604358
contagious viruses kill many more people even if they're "mild"
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1469723185084084225
Here is a firsthand report from an American MD, location undisclosed:
"How have things changed? – Way way more vaccinated and boostered patients are now becoming positive. Many of them quite ill. Indeed, as OUTPATIENTS, I would say our vaccinated ill is basically on par with the vaccinated population at large. The same is true of the boosters. So, basically, just like Denmark, we seem to be at complete par. Ergo, the vaccines are basically worthless for transmission of the virus. So far, it remains about 60-40 unvaccinated-vaccinated in the hospital.
However, the vaccinated are becoming more and more ill. And unfortunately, are needing to be admitted. This is NOT just nursing home patients. On the other side of the coin, for those who believe that natural immunity is the golden ticket, I have news for you. I have been steadfastly reporting that I have yet to see a previously infected non-vaccinated patient come in with COVID symptoms again. Well – that run is now over. I have seen two in the past 2 days. We will see how this trend develops in the coming days.
The symptoms are changing as well. For the majority, it is a bad head cold. But for those who are really ill, the respiratory symptoms that used to predominate are now replaced with intense nausea-inducing headaches at times leading to severe vomiting, intense fever, chills, and now I have been seeing a few patients with intense diarrhea. Interestingly, the muscle cramps and pain seem to all of a sudden be really bad.
Also, there is some decrease in a few patients in efficacy with the monoclonal antibodies. They just do not seem to be working as well as they did for some people. Furthermore, these treatments are being heavily restricted and patients must now meet strict criteria to get them. I have been told there is quite a supply problem. I am not sure that is true – just the scuttlebutt."
He goes on to say that 11 of 15 fully vaxxed people who attended a party without masks are now positive and one is hospitalized with severe illness.
Many professionals feel the media has done a disservice in downplaying Omicron and some feel the motivation for this bias is commercial--to "save holiday shopping" and the economy.
The other issue that is poorly understood by the general public is chronic understaffing in many parts of the healthcare system. Here is a tweet regarding the situation in Rhode Island:
"We are, one could say, the canary in the coalmine of healthcare," Himelfarb wrote, "and our state healthcare system is currently collapsing."
https://twitter.com/meganranney/status/1472739306221576192
As another frontline MD explained in a private email to me, the system has managed by shifting resources and staff from one hot-spot to the next as caseloads arose and fell across the country. If Omicron continues to spread at its current rate, caseloads will explode across the entire nation. The strategy of shifting resources and personnel will fail and healthcare systems will break down and cease to function, with predictably catastrophic results.
From the frontline MD:
"At least 5 states that I know of have now activated their national guard to fill holes, and multiple hospitals across New York alone have begun turning away expectant mothers or have shuttered their emergency facilities entirely. What's truly staggering is to wonder what happens if everyone gets hit simultaneously with the next wave of illness from whatever. We have so cannibalized whoever is left that most states are working on a sort of rotational system, meaning most nurses that fill are the same ones who fill across the board and have since this started. As most things have come in cycles at different parts of the country, it has worked thus far and alleviated true staffing shortages, or at least painted over them with a thin veneer of complacency. Now, as we head into a full force of fun (from whatever, doesn't have to be anything even remotely related to Covid now), there is no backup, no travelers, no cavalry to call in."
Source for National Guard being activated in multiple states (Montana being #5 not mentioned in this article):
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/4-states-calling-in-national-guard-to-alleviate-hospital-staffing-strain.html
Five hospitals closing services because of staffing shortages
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/5-hospitals-temporarily-permanently-closing-services-because-of-staffing-shortages.html
Source for maternity wards being closed:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/13/nyregion/upstate-ny-hospital-stop-delivering-babies.html
My hope is that this information will help your own assessment of Precautionary Prudence.
My best wishes for a safe and enjoyable holiday season--
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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