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Musings Report 2022-31 7-30-22 Does 2022 = 1962--or 1922 or 1872?
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Does 2022 = 1962--or 1922 or 1872?
Many people reject the idea of historical cycles due to their imprecision and to the notion that human destiny is influenced by something other than human will and progress.
I understand the appeal of these objections, but it is nonetheless striking that systemic transitions in economies and societies tend to manifest in specific periods rather than evenly over time.
Compare the decades 1952 to the present. How different was the culture and economy of the U.S. between 1952 and 1960?
While there was progress in civil rights and prosperity, the zeitgeist (the look, feel, values, expectations, beliefs, outlook, mood, etc.) of 1960 was not much different from that of 1952: clothing, films, the Cold War, segregation, etc. were identifiably in the same era.
Elvis, Chuck Berry, et al. enlivened popular music, but the overall impact of rock/R&B was limited to entertainment and youth culture.
Now compare the zeitgeist of 1962 and that of 1970. The zeitgeist of 1970 was nothing like the zeitgeist of 1962. It wasn't just clothing and music that changed; the values, expectations, beliefs, outlook, mood, and the political, social and economic structures had been transformed in ways that reverberated for decades to come.
The stagflation and decay of the 1970s was a direct consequence of changes that occurred in the 1960s, much of it beneath the surface.
In 1970, the popular music of 1920 might as well have been the music of a previous century. Yet the music of the late 1960s and early 1970s is still influential.
Cycles are often the result of the interconnecting forces of wars, monetary / financial turmoil and large-scale economic and social forces: the transition from wood to coal, for example, or mass immigration generated by crop failures and poverty.
The 1920s is another example of a decade of rapid transformation that laid the groundwork for the Great Depression of the 1930s. New freedoms of personal expression, adoption of new consumer technologies and speculative fervor made the 1920s different in look and feel from the immediate post-World War I era of 1919-1920.
The 1870s was another decade that transformed economies and societies globally. The investment boom in railroads following the end of the American Civil War, the reparations imposed on France after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, the end of silver coinage in the U.S., a speculative stock market boom in Europe that crashed in the Panic of 1873--all these dynamics reinforced each other, leading to a global depression that by some accounts lasted into the 1890s.
Yet despite the failure of railroads and banks and widespread unemployment, the Second Industrial Revolution continued transforming economies as coal, iron, steel, manufacturing, transport and urbanization all changed the underpinnings of global economies.
The western powers' industrial expansion drove colonization and reactions to colonization such as the Meiji Restoration of 1868 that modernized Japan.
The world of 1880 looked considerably different than the world of 1867, not just experientially but structurally.
We can of course detect change in every decade of human history, but Lenin's famous exaggeration ("There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen") speaks to the way various dynamics build up beneath the surface, interact with other forces and then burst forth.
For example, a case can be made that China is still living in the shadow of the tumultuous Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976. The fact that it's verboten to speak openly of this era is evidence of this shadow.
Could the world of 2030 look and feel completely different from the world of 2022, which is still coasting on the excesses of the "waste is growth" Landfill Economy of extreme financialization and globalization?
My guess is yes. Previous cyclical transformations emerged from monetary / financial excesses of either expansion or contraction, the aftermaths of wars, deep economic changes as energy sources expand (shifts from wood to coal and then to oil) or contract (forests depleted) and climate change (the "years without summer" in the 1630s, etc.).
Though many believe the next energy expansion is starting (fusion or other nuclear power, solar/wind), the practicalities of physics, resource depletion and cost provide little factual support for these beliefs.
For example, the U.S. would need to build hundreds of nuclear reactors in the next 20 years to make a dent in hydrocarbon consumption, yet only two reactors have been completed in the U.S. in the past 25 years.
There is no evidence that the resources, material and financial, and the political will required to build 500 reactors in the next 20 years are available.
If a massive quantity of wind and solar power is installed over the next 20 years, all the systems that are 20+ years old will need to be rebuilt/refurbished because they're worn out. These aren't renewable, they're rebuildable.
Thus we face an energy contraction at the same time as the extremes of financialization and globalization that have driven "growth" unravel.
This unraveling won't be linear, i.e. gradual and predictable. It will be non-linear and unpredictable, with apparently modest changes collapsing supply chains and speculative excesses.
Extremes of inequality and repression act as pendulums. Once they reach the maximum endpoint of momentum, they reverse to the opposite extreme, minus a bit of friction.
Many of these dynamics are already visible. What's not yet visible is the rapid acceleration and mutual reinforcement of these dynamics.
Eras of expansion may be liberating and fun, but there is no guarantee that the liberation and fun are evenly distributed.
Eras of contraction are rarely fun, and the misery is generally widely distributed. Whether we like it or not, the era of the "waste is growth" Landfill Economy is ending in what promises to be a non-linear process.
But that doesn't mean the eventual result won't be positive. Difficult transitions can set the stage for more widely distributed well-being and liberation.
Highlights of the Blog
How Much of "Inflation" Is the Price Being Jacked Up Under the Excuse of "Inflation"? 7/29/22
There Won't Be Any Winners Because The Status Quo Is Corrupt Everywhere 7/27/22
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Young friends visited with their three children (12, 10 and 6) and we taught the kids how to harvest taro and Ti leaves to make lau-laus. A good time and dinner was had by all.
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
The future of global catastrophic risk events from climate change--interesting graphic of the threats...
The world's self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete -- Gail T. 's excellent summary....
The Man Who Killed Millions and Saved Billions (22:34 min., via John F.)
The History of user Interfaces-- remember these?
Miles Davis - Time After Time (via GFB)
The Great Attrition is making hiring harder. Are you searching the right talent pools? -- worth a read....
A Brief History of Nobody Wants to Work Anymore --funny...
A Shift in American Family Values Is Fueling Estrangement
‘Run philosophy’: the Chinese citizens seeking to leave amid Covid uncertainty --yup--and other uncertainties, too....
I’ve spent the last 1.5 years researching the climate benefits of “clean” #hydrogen. Here are 10 things I’ve learned... hydrogen is not the miraculous savior many hope for...
I’ve been meeting with the same group of men for 36 years – here’s what they’ve taught me
Two decades of Alzheimer's research may be based on deliberate fraud
"The more you like yourself, the less you are like anyone else, which makes you unique." Walt Disney
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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