Musings Report 2022-45 11-5-22 4,460 and a Reassessment
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4,460 and a Reassessment
I've written 4,460 blog posts since launching Of Two Minds in May of 2005. There is nothing magical about the number 4,460, but it feels like the right time for a reassessment of my work's goals as they relate to the current global situation and what value I can offer you, my readers and financial supporters.
Our natural response to rising uncertainties and risks is rising anxiety. It can be argued that the world's uncertainties and risks are no higher or lower than recent history, and less than the Cold War.
But a hot war in Europe, rising inflation and energy turmoil support the view that the anxiety that manifests in all sorts of behaviors is increasing as a response to real uncertainties and risks, not just chimeras conjured up by media / social media to attract our attention / engagement.
In other words, the "era of good feelings" circa 1991 to 2016 has ended and we are now entering an Era of Anxiety.
I've discussed the cyclical nature of these periods of relatively orderly expansion and disorderly contraction. These history-changing cycles boils down to: what's our individual / household response?
We have no control over global energy supplies or geopolitical conflicts; we only control our response to uncertainties and risks.
I've tried to present two sets of solutions: one for the macro / systemic problems that impact us all to some degree, and the second set of solutions for our own responses.
Ultimately, we can't reduce systemic uncertainties and risks, but we can reduce our exposure to the most negative outcomes and thus reduce our anxiety.
As I've endeavored to explain, this requires looking at unlikely events that can trigger catastrophic consequences (an analogy being ana avalanche) and putting in place relatively low-cost measures to mitigate the worst of these risks.
Other risks are not bolts from the blue; they're already obvious and lack any easy solutions. If there are no easy solutions to homelessness, inflation and food/energy insecurity, for example, then we have to plan for these problems to increase in severity to the point where they start triggering second-orderr effects: perverse incentives, unanticipated consequences and system breakdowns.
If the forces driving these problems can't be accurately identified or mitigated, then the problems can only become more severe.
As I've endeavored to explain, systems operate by their own rules and dynamics, and this gives rise to another set of uncertainties and risks: the breakdown of systems we rely on should buffers thin and seemingly modest breakdowns cascade into system breakdowns.
Such breakdowns might not occur, but the potential for cascading failures is embedded in complex emergent systems like the global economy and global supply chains.
Our responses to problems we don't control can be lumped into the broad category of "self-help," in which self-reliance might be viewed as a branch that focuses less on our psychological state (maintaining a positive attitude via affirmations, etc.) and more on our real-world responses such as shortening our own personal supply chains and strengthening our own trusted networks of producers and suppliers of essentials.
Anxiety generated by stress from sources we don't control, financial pressures and unrealistic expectations is also a focus of mine, as these lead to burnout and the destruction of our capacity to function. The risks of burnout are rising along with anxiety and rising insecurity and uncertainty. The risk of burnout is another factor worth mitigating before it happens, and I endeavor to share what I've learned from my own experiences of burnout.
"Investing" is a broad category that focuses on maximizing financial return as measured by profit / net gain. ("Buy this and you'll be rich / secure.")
My work focuses on "investing in yourself" / self-reliance rather than just focusing on financial gains, as financial gains are exposed to the risk of taxation or appropriation, while investments in productive asset you control directly are less exposed to expropriation.
The state can very easily impose a "windfall" or "wealth" tax on financial assets, but there really isn't a way to expropriate one's skills or personal trusted networks. As for tools and physical capital, what value would a workshop yield to the state? Taxing "excess wealth" and "windfalls" is one thing, taking someone's tools and home is another.
Expropriating single family homes would likely unleash a political firestorm. In other words, financial assets held by those deemed "wealthy" are particularly vulnerable and particularly attractive to the state.
So my work explores what "investing in yourself" means in the real world. This is not to say there isn't a place for investing in assets outside your direct control, but it does explore the risks and uncertainties of relying on a system that serves insiders to preserve and increase one's wealth.
My work focuses on self-reliance, investing in yourself / risk mitigation and understanding systems so we're not caught off-guard by systems deemed permanent and immutable unraveling in real time.
I don't know if these have value as we face rising uncertainties and risks. I can only vouch for their value to me and those I care about. That includes you.
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
My book on self-reliance received two very thoughtful and insightful reviews of the kind every author treasures: reviews from readers who are smarter than the author.
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
Ford Abandons the Self-Driving Road to Nowhere (Wired)
Coffee: Just as Healthy as Vegetables (via Mike S.) -- finally, some truly good news...
The Massive Gas Field That Europe Can’t Use (Bloomberg)
On the Cusp of a New Era? McKinsey Global Group (via Ron G.)
Can long Covid lead to death? A new analysis suggests it could
Some People Who Appear to Be in a Coma May Actually Be Conscious (Scientific American)
I left my job in London to grow food. This deep connection with nature gives my life meaning (Guardian)
Photographer Hannah Starkey: ‘All my work is basically asking women: How’s it going?’ (Guardian)
China’s decade under Xi Jinping explained in seven charts
A Canada-Germany Hydrogen Scandal?
The Black Death is still affecting the human immune system
We See It Too Late - Robin Williams On The Fragile Meaning Of Life (9:44)
"Finance has three simple rules: maintain a clear mind, figure out asymmetries, never talk to idiots." Nassim Taleb
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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