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Musings Report 2023-19 5-6-23 Life on the Margins
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For those who are new to the Musings reports: they're a glimpse into my notebook, the unfiltered swamp where I organize future themes, sort through the dozens of stories and links submitted by readers, refine my own research and start connecting dots which appear later in the blog or in my books. As always, I hope the Musings spark new appraisals and insights. Thank you for supporting the site and for inviting me into your circle of correspondents.
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Life on the Margins
There are many pathways to life on the margins of the economy and society. Let's consider three:
1. Our genetic makeup and upbringing leave us unable to meet social expectations and fill the work slots valued by employers. Constitutionally incapable of fitting into the conventional slots, we find our way to (or end up in) the margins.
2. Opportunities to lock in the security of steady work that enables saving to buy assets and support a family are scarce in one's nation, locale, class, caste, tribe, faith or ethnicity. Most people are thus relegated to life on the margins.
3. Circumstances change, and the foundations of our security melt into air. The conventional socio-economic slots that provide security become scarce and we slip-slide from predictable security to the insecurity of the margins.
Those who find themselves incapable of fitting into the conventional slots still have to support themselves with a livelihood (unless they chose their parents wisely and are trust-funders living off the family wealth). Despite their unconventionality, the unconventional still dream of conventional success (recognition, respect, admiration, earning a useful sum of money, etc.) arising from their creative endeavors.
A relative handful of creators manage to mint millions, as many sectors of conventional economy need "something new" to sell to meet the ceaseless demand for novelty and "the latest trend" to separate the avant garde and the wealthy from the merely aspiring bourgeois. (The acquisition of status is a constant struggle through shifting sands.)
Conventional success follows a brutal power-law "long tail" distribution. The few at the top reap the vast majority of the royalties, sales, etc., a small percentage earn a conventional middle-class income and the vast majority earn too little to support themselves.
To sustain their creative endeavors, they must find some other source of income, preferably part-time (so they have time to create) and doing work that doesn't demand adherence to (what seems like impossibly strict and nonsensical) social-economic standards. This includes much of the restaurant-food-service industry, light construction, marginal non-profit organizations in the arts and social services.
The money is rarely enough to live large, and so the creatives live on the margins in seedy housing, scrounging cheap food, riding a bicycle or scooter when weather allows, etc.
A few manage to acquire a specialized skill that enables them to earn a good living working part-time. These tend to be professional or trade skills that command high hourly wages.
Others endure work they loathe until it breaks them. After they burn out and accept they're not cut out for the conventional slots, they drift to the margins. The security offered by convrntional slots came at too high a price.
Those in the second category--the economy has few opportunities for conventional security and status--must scrape by on the margins, or they must move to a place with more opportunities. This is rarely easy, and despite their best efforts, they may end up on the margins in the new locale.
But life on the margins can be much better in places with more nooks and crannies in the economy and more affordable services--more niche enterprises, quirky venues, etc., better public transport that offers affordable mobility, and a wider diversity of like-minded people to connect with.
Networks in the margins offer the same advantages of networks in the conventional economy: more connections means more opportunities to find work and collaborate, share one's creative endeavors, etc.
I foresee a sharp reduction in conventional security in the next decade as the "waste is growth" / Landfill Economy runs out of cheap materials to throw away and the credit needed to buy replacements for what broke/became obsolete and was tossed out dries up. Financialization and globalization have both hit intrinsic barriers to further expansion and so they're reversing.
Global asset bubbles inflated by financialization and globalization are bursting and cannot be reinflated a fourth time.
How many jobs can actually be replaced by commoditized (i.e. nearly free) AI is unknown, but even it's only 10% of the number projected by AI boosters, it may contribute to a systemic decline in the white-collar slots that were considered "safe and secure."
When "growth" reverses to Degrowth and asset bubble burst, this will trigger the breakdown of all the systems that only function if there is an endless expansion of credit, consumption and asset valuations. This includes many if not most systems considered integral to the status quo foundations of conventional security.
As a result, a great many people will experience downward mobility as the foundations of their financial security evaporate or crumble. Those who need less and control more of their life (the essence of self-reliance) will manage life on the margins much better than those who need high incomes to survive and who control very little of their lives.
Those with robust personal networks, few wants/needs and a wide spectrum of skills will find the margins are "good enough," or they may even thrive in the less structured churn of life on the margins.
Highlights of the Blog
Front-Running the Fed Pivot Might Not Work Next Time 5/5/23
What If the Fed Has Lost Control? 5/3/23
Crystal Balls, Soothsayers and AI, Oh My! 5/1/23
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
I was honored to be the guest on three very different podcasts / conversations: with Richard Bonugli on currencies and global trade; on self-discipline and fitness with Tommy Carrigan and with Adam Taggart on the macro-economic picture, advice for those entering the workforce and self-reliance.
Has the Fed Lost Control? (twitter space conversation with Adam Taggart)
Weightlifting / fitness as the greatest teacher, with Tommy Carrigan)
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
Many links are behind paywalls. Most paywalled sites allow a few free articles per month if you register. It's the New Normal.
The Woman Beside Wendell Berry: The Most Important Fiction Editor Almost No One Has Heard Of
Going Home with Wendell Berry
‘A culture, a people, an ethos’: one of the US’s oldest Asian American bookstores closes -- Eastwind Books, Berkeley
None of the world’s top industries would be profitable if they paid for the natural capital they use: A sobering new study finds that the world's biggest industries burn through $7.3 trillion worth of free natural capital a year. And it's the only reason they turn a profit.
A Woman with a Camera in Uzbekistan: Umida Akhmedova about Herself.
The unfulfilled promises of financial regulation.
Polypharmacy Among Adults Aged 65 Years and Older in the United States: 1988–2010--the number of elderly taking 5+ medications has tripled....
Rural America dips into its wallet as airlines drop service -- shortage of pilots is the reason given....
Navigating Polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate
I'm A Doctor Who Almost Died Because My Own Doctors Refused To Do This 1 Basic Thing
"You have power over your mind — not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength." Marcus Aurelius
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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