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Musings Report 2023-41 10-7-23 What Are Islands of Coherence?
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What Are Islands of Coherence?
Last week I ended the Musings with this reference to Islands of Coherence:
"Much of what is considered valuable today will be revealed as valueless as these extremes unwind in a disorderly rebalancing. Islands of Coherence in a sea of incoherence will become valuable."
The phrase originated with complexity scientist Ilya Prigogine, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1977 for his work on nonequilibrium thermodynamics. Here is his quote containing the phrase: "When a system is far from equilibrium, small islands of coherence have the capacity to shift the entire system."
I don't claim to understand Prigogine's vast body of work, which is both varied and nuanced, but I can sketch out his insights into complex systems, largely drawn from his co-authored 1984 book Order Out of Chaos. (new: used)
Classical physics operates in a closed system, a mechanistic model like a clock. Nature is what Prigogine calls an Open System, constantly impacted by stimuli and inputs from the chaotic world outside and feedback inside the system. Open systems are in constant motion as inputs and mechanisms generate feedback loops that influence every aspect of the system.
In his words, "Nature is change, the continual elaboration of the new, a totality being created in an essentially open process of development without any preestablished model."
The 12 key attributes of open systems are:
1. They have the potential to self-organize, that is, establish order out of chaos.
2. They establish order through what he calls fluctuations, which can have multiple sources.
3. There are three basic states: equilibrium, non-equilibrium and far-from-equilibrium. We can think of equilibrium as stability. Systems that are far-from-equilibrium may appear stable but beneath the surface they are increasingly vulnerable to instability.
4. In far from equilibrium systems, seemingly spontaneous reorganizations can occur.
5. Nonequilibrium and far-from-equilibrium systems generate nonlinear effects, in which small causes can have large effects.
6. Feedback can be amplified by positive feedback (self-reinforcing feedback) and other conditions.
7. Initial conditions of the system impact nonlinear effects.
8. The breakdown or reorganization of order (akin to phase changes) occurs at what he calls bifurcation points or singular moments.
9. Communication is complex, as first-order signals within the system may not be received due to a lack of receptors. A second-order communication occurs when another organism / participant converts the signal into one that can be received / understood.
10. Small fluctuations can be amplified into structure-breaking waves that disintegrate into chaos or reorganize into a higher order.
11. In equilibrium systems, individuals and ideas have little influence. In Far-from-equilibrium systems, individuals can change the system via "...bifurcation regions in which an individual, an idea or a new behavior can upset the global state."
12. "Inertial constraints may eventually force a system into a disastrous way of functioning." In other words, systems' inertial constraints--in effect, "the way things work" / the status quo--force the system into "doing more of what's failing," leading to disaster / collapse.
In summary: order arises out of fluctuations. Suppress fluctuations and the system veers out of equilibrium. This is the core principle of Nassim Taleb's anti-fragility.
One of Prigogine's most intriguing ideas is problem-solving arises from understanding the problem in a new way: "change the definition of a problem and thus the kind of solution sought."
Prigogine was cautious about extending these insights from hard science to the social sciences due to the immense complexity of societies and economies. But he clearly thought the principles apply to all systems.
"The match is responsible for the forest fire but reference to a match does not suffice to understand the fire."
In other words, the conditions for the fire must be present for the match to ignite a conflagration.
In this understanding of system dynamics, islands of coherence can be understood as subsystems that have maintained equilibrium as the larger system veers far from equilibrium and bifurcation regions expand, increasing the odds of a collapse of order into chaos.
But Prigogine is very clear that it is also possible that a new equilibrium may be spontaneously reorganized out of chaos. In other words, there is no set pathway, as there is no preestablished model.
The odds of a new equilibrium arising increase if there is an island of coherence which acts as an attractor and a stabilizing model around which the chaotic, out-of-equilibrium elements can orbit.
My understanding of islands of coherence is that they are scale-invariant, meaning the size of the unit isn't the controlling variable, what counts is its stability / equilibrium, which is measured in what Taleb calls anti-fragility and what Prigogine calls order arises out of fluctuations.
In other words, systems that not just tolerate but encourage dissent, new ideas, competing ideas, experimentation and variability maintain equilibrium from this constant churn of inputs and feedback. Systems which are rigid and suppress dissent / experimentation veer out of equilibrium as the world changes and feedback loops are amplified.
As the Taoists put it: the dead, brittle stick breaks, the live branch moves with the breeze.
In my view, islands of coherence can be households, neighborhoods, towns, cities, counties or regions.
In my analysis, the key elements of coherence are social cohesion and civic virtue, which include shared purpose, shared sacrifice for the common good, moral legitimacy and social mobility, which includes a stake in the system and agency, i.e. self-direction.
Households that lack these characteristics are likely to be far from equilibrium and vulnerable to collapse when feedbacks amplify or external stresses / crises impact the household. The same is true of neighborhoods, towns, cities, and so on.
In my view, these key elements of coherence are the pillars of self-reliance.
The way in which an island of coherence influences others veering out of equilibrium is not always transparent or immediate. I've observed it manifest in various ways. One that you might have noticed is what happens in a shabby, poorly maintained neighborhood when one neighbor repaints their house with attractive colors and details, cleans up their yard and plants flowers, inviting passersby to enjoy the beauty. It doesn't always work, of course, depending on how far into chaos the neighborhood has spun, but I've observed that over time, owners of nearby properties start sprucing up their homes and yards.
The reason I advocate moving locales is it will be very difficult for coherent households to maintain their coherence if the locale they inhabit veers far out of equilibrium. It will be much easier to maintain equilibrium in a locale that has strong community ties, social cohesion and civic virtue.
Another foundation of coherence is material security, meaning limited dependence on global supply chains-- energy, food and water being delivered from afar. Virtually the entire developed world is dependent on long global supply chains for essentials, but some places are less dependent than others and more frugal with what they do import. Others have limited infrastructure, others have more public works and infrastructure.
A third foundation is the adaptability and resilience of the locale's human / financial capital and institutions, and their combined ability to innovate and experiment quickly to pursue faster, better, cheaper solutions.
These three sources of adaptability / equilibrium will establish the odds that a single match will ignite a firestorm or be limited to a small blaze that can be quickly extinguished.
A great many households, cities, etc. are already far from equilibrium financially; as they're hovering on the edge of insolvency. Financial distress amplifies social distress and that amplifies social disorder.
Many households are already moving because they no longer agree with the political direction of their state. (See article below in From Left Field). As I say in my book on Self-Reliance, in my view what matters more than politics are integrity, honesty, ability to get work done as promised without crisis or fuss, stability, frugality, practical skills, willingness to learn and change, and trustworthiness. These are the elements which generate self-reliance and equilibrium, which together establish and maintain islands of coherence.
Highlights of the Blog
The Bottomless Swamp of Regulatory Capture 10/6/23
Our Revolting Elites 10/4/23
How Great Is Our Economy If the Bottom 50%'s Share of the Nation's Wealth Has Plummeted Since 2009? 10/2/23
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Homemade pasta sauce from homegrown tomatoes. The trick is to bake the tomato pieces with garlic for an hour to concentrate the flavors, lightly mix the pieces in a food processor and then add this to slow-cooked onions and the usual spices. You can add sausage or meat if desired, or leave it vegetarian.
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
Many links are behind paywalls. Most paywalled sites allow a few free articles per month if you register. It's the New Normal.
Two Families Got Fed Up With Their States’ Politics. So They Moved Out.
How the Costs of Car Ownership Add Up -- $21,000 a year to own two Kia cars, yikes...
Effects of tea, catechins and catechin derivatives on Omicron subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 (via C.A.)
Heads they "Cha-Ching!", Tails They Take Away Your Malpractice Insurance
The Cruel Fantasies of Well-Fed People
THE NEXT DECADE COULD BE EVEN WORSE: A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.
Peter Turchin predicts a turbulent 10–20 years (6:16 min)
The Best Tinder Profile Pictures You’ve Ever Seen-- discussing male profiles...
Global Innovation Index 2023 --Published annually, the core of the GII provides performance measures and ranks some 130-plus economies on their innovation ecosystems.
The Genius Behind Hollywood’s Most Indelible Sets
"Madison Avenue is a very powerful aggression against private consciousness. A demand that you yield your private consciousness to public manipulation." Marshall McLuhan
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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