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Musings Report 2024-22 6-1-24 The Most Revolutionary Changes Ahead Will Not Be Technology-Driven
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The Most Revolutionary Changes Ahead Will Not Be Technology-Driven
Given the ceaseless cranked-to-11 hype accompanying every technological "innovation," however slight--"our new toaster, now with AI!"--we must be forgiven for assuming that every revolutionary change that's ahead will be driven by technology.
But not all change is the result of some new technology, or a response to new technology. Many of the most profound revolutions are social - cultural, revolutions that surprise those assuming that all revolutions arise from new technologies or economic / political developments.
Consider the rise of single-person households, from 7% of all households in 1940 to 28% today.
While we can indirectly attribute some of this increase to people living longer and often outliving their spouse, as the Census Bureau article shows, the elderly account for only 40% of people living alone.
This remarkable social change has many potential sources: the decline of multi-generational living arrangements, the decline in marriage rates, the general rise of income-wealth that enables individuals to afford their own home/apartment, and a trend of maintaining fewer connections with other people--the decline of community ties and social capital----to bowl alone, to borrow a phrase from an influential book on the decline of social connections that was first published in 2000: Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community by Robert Putnam:
"Bowling Alone surveyed in detail Americans’ changing behavior over the decades, showing how we had become increasingly disconnected from family, friends, neighbors, and social structures, whether it’s with the PTA, church, clubs, political parties, or bowling leagues. In the revised edition of his classic work, Putnam shows how our shrinking access to the 'social capital' that is the reward of communal activity and community sharing still poses a serious threat to our civic and personal health, and how these consequences have a new resonance for our divided country today. He includes critical new material on the pervasive influence of social media and the internet, which has introduced previously unthinkable opportunities for social connection—as well as unprecedented levels of alienation and isolation."
We find similar commentary in The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in An Age of Diminishing Expectations by Christopher Lasch, published in 1979.
By these accounts, the social capital of civic and community ties have been eroding for two generations--an erosion accelerated by the substitution of social media digital connections for real-world relationships.
In my analysis, some of this long-term decay can be traced to the transition from an economy / society based on relationships to one based on transactions, in effect a world measured by consumer transactions. In this world, employees are trained to be courteous in a mimicry of an actual relationship.
In this world, what we call strong social ties--intimate friendships and relationships--are increasingly difficult to establish and maintain, as relationships are more than a string of transactions.
Our weak social ties--neighbors, clerks at our favorite stores, etc.--also erode, as the constant churn of the economy moves people around and tends to increase our sense of insecurity. So we hurry home, avoiding contact with strangers and quickly slam the door on the outside world to immerse ourselves in the artificial world of digital screens.
Studies have found that our mental health deteriorates when both our strong and weak social ties decay.
This is easily predictable, as humans are naturally selected to be social animals. Indeed, it is not an exaggeration to say that our sociability--our ability to communicate and cooperate with others--is our primary selective advantage.
As social capital weakens, living alone becomes a default setting for many.
Living alone has its advantages, but it also has disadvantages: in a practical sense, life is harder when you have to do everything yourself. Sharing the "work" of life and having someone to relate to at home are beneficial.
There are a rather limited number of living-with-others arrangements: family, roommates or romantic partner. All bring their own complications and rewards. There are a handful of voluntary communal arrangements, such as religious orders and co-housing, a model of private-dwellings / shared dining and common areas imported from Scandinavia in the early 1990s.
From the larger perspective, modern societies have become deficient in the essentials of human life: strong and weak social ties. While those reaping billions of dollars in profits from social media claim this technology improves human ties, the reality is that digital connections are not substitutes for real-world ties, and addictions to phones and social media are deranging rather than enriching.
To recover a social order that enables rather than weakens social capital will require a revolution, one not driven by technology but one that arises despite technology.
In this context, I was interested to find what might be called a hybrid arrangement of social bonding: friendship marriage:
What is a friendship marriage? From pals to platonic partners, Japanese couples embrace unions without romance or sex (via Cheryl A.)
"Increasing numbers of young people in Japan are adopting a new type of marital relationship that requires neither love nor sex, in a trend called 'friendship marriage.'
Around one per cent of Japan’s population of 124 million are possible candidates for the arrangement.
The figures come from data collected by Colorus, an agency that claims to be the first and only one in Japan that specializes in friendship marriages.
Friendship marriage is defined as 'a cohabitating relationship based on shared interests and values.' It is not about traditional romantic love or marrying a best friend.
In such relationships, the partners are legally spouses, but without romantic love or sexual interaction. Couples may live together or separately. If they decide to have children, they might decide to use artificial insemination.
"Friendship marriage is like finding a roommate with similar interests," explained someone who has been in such an arrangement for three years.
"I’m not suited to be someone’s girlfriend, but I can be a good friend. I only wanted someone with similar tastes to do things we both enjoy, to chat and laugh with," another said.
Before marrying, couples usually spend hours or days agreeing on the details of their life, such as whether to eat meals together, how to split expenses, who does the laundry, and how to allocate refrigerator space.
Such discussions may seem unromantic, but they have helped about 80 per cent of couples to live happily together and in many cases have children, Colorus said.
Many asexuals, who are unable to feel sexual desire or fall in love, still crave connection and companionship.
Some heterosexual young people, who dislike traditional marriage patterns or romantic relationships, but are subject to societal pressures, have also been embracing the new trend.
About 75 per cent of Japanese in their thirties still view marriage as a life goal, as reported by the Japanese Cabinet Office.
However, 47.2 per cent of Japanese married couples have not had sex in the past month, and the number is rising, a 2016 survey showed.
Seeking alternatives to traditional marriage, people have turned to friendship marriage to present a 'stable and mature' image for career advancement or to please their parents.
In Japan, being married has tax benefits and it remains very difficult for single women to have children.
More than 70 per cent of partners in friendship marriages did so to have children.
Although these types of relationships sometimes end in divorce, the advantages include enjoying policy benefits, companionship and 'helping those who feel lost, dislike traditional marriage, or consider themselves social outcasts,' Colorus said.
Worldwide, young people are increasingly exploring relationship arrangements beyond traditional marriage norms."
While this may seem cold-blooded to those who see romantic love and marriage as inseparable, I was struck by the attention to sorting out the practicalities of a shared life, practicalities that many lovestruck newlyweds never seem to have discussed before deciding to cohabit/marry: potential differences in tidiness / messiness, frugality / free-spending, financial goals, child-rearing, shared duties of cooking, shopping, budgeting, shared time together, etc.
Studies have found that marriage partners tend to share class and educational similarities, but these don't necessarily translate into a shared vision of modern life's many practical complexities. If "friendship marriages" focus on negotiating how to manage life's many practicalities, then that offers a more realistic foundation than being lovestruck and unaware of what may cause conflict down the road.
Since I've been self-employed / run enterprises most of my life, it seems to me that successful marriages are akin to an enterprise that is shared by both partners, who by force of necessity develop a process to negotiate practical solutions that doesn't get bogged down in emotional issues.
Another factor that was mentioned only indirectly in the article is the heavy burdens imposed by the demands to find romantic love and compatibility in one person. Friendship marriages require only compatibility, which greatly decreases the demands implicitly being made on each person.
While there may be cultural factors unique to Japan in this trend--a friend of mine who married a Japanese woman and has lived in Japan for over 40 years opined that, as a generality, the Japanese may be less romantic than Americans--it didn't surprise me that the article mentioned the global appeal of friendship marriages: financial and social pressures are intensifying globally, often accompanied by the decay of social capital.
Friendship marriages are a fringe trend, but the trend illustrates the enduring human need for real-world connections and relationships, a need that technology has warped, and our willingness to "innovate," if we dare deploy such an overused word, in social-cultural adaptations to an increasing inhumane global socio-economic system.
The social-cultural revolution to come won't be the result of some new technology; it will be the result of profoundly human needs demanding non-technological solutions that restore what has been lost.
Highlights of the Blog
Bubble Symmetry: Could the NASDAQ Drop 60% and Round-Trip to 2,500? 5/31/24
The $150,000 Housekeeper: Wage Inflation Kicks Into Second Gear 5/29/24
Is Hyper-Inflation that Destroys a Currency a "Solution"? 5/27/24
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Longtime subscriber Hector G. very kindly sent me this hand-written note: "The quality of your work is unquestionably excellent. I admire how you articulate your messages."
Thank you, Hector, for your generous support and encouragement.
In the garden, the Northeaster beans reach 10 inches in length, and are still tender once julienned and stir-fried.
What's on the Book Shelf
I'm listing the books' Amazon pages for the comments, but of course it's best to borrow the book from the local library if that's possible.
Recently finished:
Armada: The Spanish Enterprise and England's Deliverance in 1588
Currently reading:
The True and Only Heaven: Progress and Its Critics by Christopher Lasch
Mentioned by readers:
Raising Your Game During The Age of AI: Insight to Impact: Generative Foundations & AI Methodology For IT and Business Professionals by Ron Giblin
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
Many links are behind paywalls. Most paywalled sites allow a few free articles per month if you register. It's the New Normal.
Consumers are so demoralized by inflation and high rates that they’ve given up on saving for the American Dream and are spending money instead, economist says.
The US food industry has long buried the truth about their products. Is that coming to an end?
The people charged with making sure AI doesn’t destroy humanity have left the building
How to Murder a Popular Restaurant Chain With This 1 Weird Trick
When the C.I.A. Turned Writers Into Operatives
You were promised a jetpack by liars: AIs and self-driving cars are the new jetpacks.
What's the Matter with Letting AI Run the ER?
Joe Rogan Experience #2152 - Terrence Howard (3:08 hrs)(via Ursel D.)
It is NOT necessary to pay for books. 10 websites containing millions of books & documents. (via Cheryl A.)
Xi Jinping’s Recipe for Total Control: An Army of Eyes and Ears: Reviving a Mao-era surveillance campaign, the authorities are tracking residents, schoolchildren and businesses to forestall any potential unrest.
The Spooky Consequences of Pollinator Decline
As Insurers Around the U.S. Bleed Cash From Climate Shocks, Homeowners Lose
"Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them." William Shakespeare
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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