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Musings Report 2024-46 11-16-24 The 8 Essentials We Need to Control
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The 8 Essentials We Need to Control
I often reference our dependence on long supply chains and complex systems whose apparent robustness in normal operations masks their inherent fragility and vulnerability to collapse when put under pressure by an out-of-the ordinary event. This fragility is the result of the global imperative to optimize every supply chain and system for efficiency and cost in normal operations, which requires stripping out costly redundancies and back-up systems.
Against this backdrop of illusory low-risk stability, we need some control over these essentials of life:
1. food
2. water
3. shelter
4. fuel / electricity
5. sanitation
6. mobility
7. health
8. money
I've also noted that the insurance industry in not a charity. Their job is to minimize exposure to risks that could generate claims, minimize claim payouts and increase rates to cover projected losses and generate a profit.
This makes the insurance industry an accurate proxy for systemic risk. If insurers are paying out tens of billions of dollars in claims and jacking up rates / abandoning markets to reduce exposure to unacceptably high risks, this tells us something important about systemically rising risk.
Consider this chart of the insurance industry's heavy losses in U.S. states. Notice the list of states hit by severe losses has grown long.
The list of "impossible" disasters which have struck towns and regions is lengthening to a sobering degree. That the town of Lahaina (Hawaii) was at risk of burning down was incomprehensible, as was the damage done to Asheville (North Carolina). The "impossible" is rapidly becoming "the new normal," which is why insurance companies are fleeing entire regions, demanding homeowners reduce risks or face cancellation of their policies and raising rates across the board.
The insurance industry is an accurate proxy for systemic risk because it deals in dollars and risk, not opinions about the causes, which have zero influence on the realities.
With roughly 80% of the population living in urban zones, there are obvious limits on most households' ability to replace long supply chains and complex systems. But that doesn't mean urban/suburban households can't take some measure of control over these 8 essentials. Having some control is far better than zero control, where our lives are literally leaves blowing in the wind.
When it comes to these essentials, half-measures and "life hacks" are not replacements for doing the real work required.
So where do we start? How about taking control of what it takes to live for a week without utilities and access to stores, and having the means to respond to whatever crisis disrupted supply chains and infrastructure?
In other words, what do we need to camp out for a week?
A week's supply of food isn't that difficult to assemble. But then we need some way to heat / cook the food, so that requires a fuel and a device to burn the fuel, such as a propane camp stove or equivalent.
Water is more demanding, as we don't just need potable water to drink, we also need enough water to flush toilets / provide sanitation and wash dishes, etc. A few gallons of water stored under the sink isn't going to cut it. (A bucket of water poured into a toilet will flush it.)
We can improvise at the last minute, of course, filling a bathtub with water or a clean plastic garbage can, but in terms of drinking this water, we need a water filter or fuel to boil water. And those amounts of water are insufficient.
The only real solution is a water tank of some sort. A friend just installed a 120-gallon tank behind his garage. It fit on a 3-foot wide sidewalk and takes up very little space.
120 gallons of water is a lot when camping but very little in normal life. According to the EPA, the average US household uses around 300 gallons of water per day which translates to roughly 9,000 gallons per month. 120 gallons is not enough to flush the toilet every time someone urinates in the course of a week. (A pee bucket is one solution.) It's only sufficient in camping-mode: no waste, sponge baths, etc. It is, however, much better than 2 gallons of drinking water and a bathtub of water.
As for shelter, we have to consider the risks we have to mitigate depending on our locale: fire, earthquake, hurricanes, flooding, etc. If we can't harden our entire house, can we harden some part of it to protect us? We need some basic tools and skills to undertake this hardening, but it doesn't require a workshop of tools, and YouTube University offers plentiful instruction on how to do practically any task.
Mitigating risk often requires significant investment. Having tall trees near a house pruned can cost $10,000 or more, for example. As I mentioned in last week's Musings, I've been hardening our house against hurricanes / high winds, and every few days I'm buying $100+ of Simpson ties and screws, plywood, 2X4s, etc. We've spent a couple thousand dollars so far and I'm far from done. As noted above, there are no short cuts or life hacks in this realm; it's either done right or it's not really an effective solution / measure of control.
We also have to consider Plan B if our current shelter become untenable. Where will we go, and how will we get there?
Mobility is an issue because the very first thing that happens in a fast-moving crisis is the roadways become gridlocked as everyone else tries to flee in their vehicle. Our overall health and fitness become issues because if push comes to shove, we might need our own two feet to reach safety, and it might be miles away.
Fuel / electricity is a necessity for cooking, heating in winter and for lighting and communications (mobile phones, radio, etc.) Yes, we can charge mobile phones using our vehicles, but this is a costly way to charge a phone. The only real solution is an independent source of electricity such as a generator or solar / battery power station.
Since we're discussing "camping out" for a week, camping equipment is a good place to start. There are portable camping batteries with a small solar panel for recharging on sunny days. These are enough to keep mobile phones charged, but for lighting, tablets / laptops, refrigeration, etc., a larger system is required.
For some, a gasoline-fueled generator is the best option. For others, a large battery with portable solar panels is the better option. The point is having zero electricity / fuel should everything go down is extremely limiting.
As for health, it's essential to stockpile whatever medications are needed daily, and the usual emergency medical supplies to treat injuries, pain, infections, etc. In the larger context, being healthy and fit is a core asset that is largely within our control if we choose to exercise it. (Genetics account for roughly a third, what we do counts for two-thirds.)
The healthier we are, the more we can handle physically, in terms of strength, endurance and immune response.
As for money, should power and the Internet go down, our access to our digital money goes away. The only money we will have is the cash we have on hand. (Old dimes with silver content that makes them inherently valuable are a good back-up option, but cash is king.) Keeping a few hundred dollars in small bills is a buffer against unexpected needs arising that require a purchase.
(The messier one's workshop, office, storage, etc., the more opportunities there are to stash the cash in hard-to-find places.)
The idea here is simple: the more we control, the more options we have, and the heftier our buffers against the unexpected.
OK, so what if nothing untoward ever happens? Wasn't all this a waste of time, money and effort? With this logic, all insurance is also a big waste of money, as the odds of something bad happening to us, our house or vehicle are low. So do we cancel all our insurance?
Redundancies, buffers, back-ups and maintaining options (i.e. having some control) all cost money, which is why they've been stripped from global supply chains. Their value is like that of insurance, to mitigate risk and reduce losses, and if it is never needed, then for the peace of mind offered by having the means to reduce risk/loss in place.
Their full value is only revealed when bad things happen, when those without insurance do without.
Longer term, it's wise to assess the limits of our control and ask ourselves what it would take to control not just of a week's worth of supplies but of our assets, livelihood and income streams. If where we live now is inherently high-risk and the risks are difficult to mitigate, then perhaps we should ask ourselves where else could we live with more control of our lives and lower risks.
Metaphorically and materially, 100-year floods seem to be occurring every year or two. What was "impossible" / incomprehensible in the past is now happening on a daily basis. The financial equivalent of a 100-year flood that the consensus holds is "impossible" may be more possible than we imagine.
The more we control, the better prepared we are for come what may. Control is not just a kind of insurance, it gives us options and flexibility, an asset that become priceless in fast-moving crises.
Highlights of the Blog
The Seeds of Social Revolution: Extreme Wealth Inequality 11/15/24
The Elephant in the Room--No, the Other Elephant 11/14/24
Machiavelli's Sage Advice to Transformational Leaders 11/13/24
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
A neighbor gifted us a kabocha (pumpkin) which we transformed into a Thai-style chicken curry, with Thai basil leaves and fresh limes from our yard.
What's on the Book Shelf
The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World (via Richard M.)
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
Many links are behind paywalls. Most paywalled sites allow a few free articles per month if you register. It's the New Normal.
European Power plants are burning American forests
This Is How Oil Ends (Art Berman)
Water Crises Threaten the World’s Ability to Eat, Studies Show: Food production is concentrated in too few countries, many of which face water shortages, the researchers said.
‘They refused to let me go’: Japanese workers turn to resignation agencies to quit jobs
Mother says AI chatbot led her son to kill himself in lawsuit against its maker (via Richard M.)
If You’re All About Freedom, Why Support The Structural Economic Enslavement Of Humanity?
China's homeowners living in unfinished apartments – BBC News (3:21 min)... cops arrive to shut down filming...
A Forgotten Guitar Genius: The Tale of Michael Bloomfield (video)
Mexico announces food and agriculture plan that could take the country back to the 1980s
Persistence of the Gleissberg 88-year solar cycle over the last 12,000 years: Evidence from cosmogenic isotopes
Runway Just Changed AI Video Forever! Seriously. (9:38 min) (via Richard M.)
These Creatures Occupy 'Third State' Beyond Life And Death, Scientists Say (via Cheryl A.)
"Things derive their being in nature from mutual interdependence." Nagarjuna (via David D.)
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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