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Musings Report 2024-51 12-21-24 2025: A Volatile Mix of Hope and Denial
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2025: A Volatile Mix of Hope and Denial
My description of 2025 is a volatile mix of hope and denial, as these emotions are the dominant dynamics. The zeitgeist is alive with hope for a renewal that fixes everything that's broken or decaying, a hope that embodies different measures of hope: hope for a return to the stable prosperity of an earlier era, hope that new technologies will power this renewal, and unstated but central, the hope that everything we have now will not change and that no sacrifices will be required to maintain the status quo.
Hope is an emotion that is often evoked but rarely examined. That humans need hope is well understood. Less well understood is the ease of substituting wishful thinking or denial for positive expectations (i.e. hope) based on realistic assessments.
The biblical story of Joseph interpreting Pharaoh's dream as a forecast of seven lean years following seven years of abundance poses a question: what is hopeful in this forecast? On the face of it, nothing: what's hopeful about seven years of famine? The hope is not in the forecast but in the potential to prepare for the difficult years ahead as the means to reduce the suffering.
This isn't the kind of hope currently in circulation. The current kind of hope leans heavily on unspoken assumptions that can only be characterized as denial / magical thinking.
Consider the widespread notion that economies are rapidly electrifying vehicles and industries as the pathway to reducing the consumption of hydrocarbons. Another widespread notion is that China is the leader in electric vehicles and therefore a leader in the energy transition from hydrocarbons to sustainable "green" energy sources.
The reality is jarringly different. "Accounting for more than half of global coal demand, China is by far the world's largest coal consumer. In 2022, the country's overall coal demand rose by 4.6% to a total of 4 520 Mt, with coal taking a share of more than 60% in power generation."
Then there's China's soaring imports of oil: "China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, imported 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in 2023, 10% more than in 2022."
If China's consumption of both coal and oil is increasing, then where is the transition to "sustainable green energy"? Transitioning vehicles from consuming hydrocarbons directly to vehicles consuming hydrocarbons indirectly isn't a transition to consuming less hydrocarbons. If China's expansion of wind, solar and nuclear energy sources is successfully replacing hydrocarbons, then why is China's consumption of coal and oil rising?
That we consume all the energy we produce regardless of source is called Jevon's Paradox: rather than substitute a new energy source for an existing one, we use more of both. The world hasn't even let go of wood as an energy source; we're burning more wood for fuel than ever before.
The same can be said of the global economy as a whole. The hope of a seamless, sacrifice-free energy transition is based not on factual assessment but on denial and wishful thinking.
As energy analyst Vaclav Smil has pointed out, if an electric vehicle is charged with electricity generated by burning coal, that vehicle is effectively powered by coal, intermediated by first turning the coal into electricity, a process that also consumes energy. The same can be said of natural gas and oil used to generate electricity: the vehicle isn't "consuming" electricity, it's consuming hydrocarbons converted into electricity.
As for another energy source steeped in hope, renewed investment in nuclear power is widely anticipated to provide the energy needed to wean the planet off hydrocarbons. But as energy analyst Gail Tverberg has explained, most of the enriched uranium needed to fuel nuclear power plants has come from recycling decommissioned nuclear warheads, a source that has been consumed. The world economy needs to simplify.
Where will all the uranium needed to power thousands of nuclear power plants globally going to come from, and how expensive will it be to mine and process?
Recall that uranium isn't found in great chunks, awaiting our discovery. Entire mountains of earth must be torn apart and sifted for a handful of uranium. There is no cheap or easy way to do this, and these immense processes are powered by hydrocarbons.
A few years ago, the zeitgeist was alight with hope that thorium nuclear reactors would be the ideal solution to our energy needs. But the few thorium reactors being constructed have run aground on cost overruns and technical problems without easy solutions. This hope was based not on realistic assessments but on wishful thinking and the denial of obvious realities. Nobody talks about thorium reactors now, they gush over modular nuclear reactors, which are inherently costly to build and dependent on scarce uranium as fuel.
The same can be said of other examples of hope for a sacrifice-free transition to super-abundance: for example, fusion energy. "The minimum temperature required for nuclear fusion is approximately 100 million degrees Celsius (Kelvin). This is the temperature needed to fuse deuterium and tritium, the most commonly studied fusion fuel on Earth, and is significantly hotter than the core of the Sun." Basic physics informs us that controlling temperatures at these extremes is not easy or cheap, if it is even possible for longer than milliseconds.
The hope for fusion is based on an implicit guarantee that technological advancement is both limitless and unstoppable and so it's only a matter of time before incomprehensibly extreme temperatures are controlled by forces that themselves require monstrous quantities of energy, and this immensely costly project will magically result in nearly limitless, nearly free power. This expectation--that there are no limits on human ingenuity or our technological advances--has no scientific basis.
As for "drill, baby drill," the hope that we can continue to extract oil in whatever quantities we desire in remote pockets of the planet, energy analyst Alice Friedman has pointed out that the arctic permafrost is melting, meaning that it's impossible to pave a road and drive heavy vehicles hundreds of kilometers over permafrost to "drill, baby drill."
When these realities are raised, the reaction is indignation, as if conducting a realistic assessment is anathema because it destroys hope for a better, easier future.
What a realistic assessment undermines isn't hope; it undermines denial and magical thinking, both of which exist by disconnecting hope from reality. Hope based on fantasies isn't actually hope, it's delusion substituting for hope.
Hope based on denial makes for a volatile mix, as denial isn't a productive adaptive strategy--and neither is indignant rage when the fantasy is questioned. Rather, both emotions delay our acceptance of reality and hinder our real progress, which starts with a realistic assessment of conditions, obstacles, options, costs and benefits, and what choices offers the best odds of weathering whatever comes our way in good form.
Returning to the biblical story, hope grounded in a factual assessment isn't dependent on indignation, denial or wishful thinking, fantasies disconnected from the real world. An idea really only qualifies as hope if it's based on a realistic assessment of costs and limits, and what lies ahead.
If we face seven lean years, the hope is we can manage well enough if we set aside unrealistic fantasies and prepare for lean times in common-sense ways. That such preparations require change and sacrifices is to be expected, and these realities don't diminish our hope, they power our hope.
What's the foundation of a realistic assessment?
First and foremost, be skeptical of tidy "solutions" that do not discuss limits, costs and complexity, which is itself a cost. Keep the intrinsic fragility of the current global system in mind: everything's connected, and pulling one thread can unravel the entire system. Second-order effects are often initially invisible and unanticipated, so maintaining an open mind and being ready to change a conclusion or point of view is essential.
Be skeptical of the status quo's definition of the problem, for the status quo is busy solving the wrong problems. Rather than recognize the Waste Is Growth Landfill Economy is the problem, we're told the problem is we're not consuming enough, i.e. the problem is we need more "growth."
If we get the problem wrong, the solution we pursue will only make things worse.
The second foundation is self-reliance: what's in our spectrum of response to whatever comes down the road? What can I gain control of, and what can I do to reduce my exposure to risks I can't control? In my book Self-Reliance in the 21st Century, I list these principles, with the understanding that a realistic assessment and self-reliance are both works in progress, not a destination we reach.
As Emerson explained, the essence of self-reliance is that each individual makes their own assessments, decisions and plans, based on their unique circumstances. These are general principles.
1. Get healthy and stay healthy.
2. Cultivate the inner strengths described by Emerson: to think independently and not be swayed by conformity or the opinions of others; rely on ourselves, trust our intuition and take action: “Do the thing and you shall have the power.”
3. Cooperation and reciprocity: becoming a productive participant in a trusted network of people producing and procuring essentials.
4. Focus on producing and sharing rather than taking.
5. Finding solutions for ourselves and our households rather than relying on authorities.
6. Need less, consume less, waste nothing. Become resourceful.
7. Reduce dependency on fragile supply chains and energy-intensive systems.
8. Be flexible. Thomas Z. Zhang’s translation of Chapter 76 of the Tao Te Ching offers a succinct summary: “Rigidity leads to death, flexibility results in survival.” My old philosophy professor, Chang Chung-yuan, translated the following line as: “Thus, when troops are inflexible, they lose the war.”
9. Pursue projects that can be completed with the resources we have on hand. As Sun Tzu put it: "If a battle cannot be won, do not fight it."
10. Be willing to move to places with fewer institutional rigidities, fewer dependencies on global supply chains and more local sources of essentials.
11. Develop practical, experiential skills to produce basic goods and services.
12. Accumulate all forms of capital, tangible and intangible. These are the foundation of self-reliance.
13. Develop self-knowledge of our strengths and constraints, and the ability to be realistic in assessments and decisions.
14. Develop a working knowledge of systems: we live within systems, and our life can best be understood as a system.
15. Become antifragile, which means navigating adversity and emerging with greater strength and adaptability.
16. Seek a diversity of interests, skills, networks, incomes and assets; all our eggs should not be in one basket. This reduces fragility and boosts adaptability.
17. Gain control of as much of your life as possible. Own your skills, work, assets, health, enterprises, interests, networks and integrity.
18. Self-reliance is not a destination we reach; it is a process of dynamic evolution as we respond to challenges in the here and now and those we see on the path ahead.
The core source of hope in self-reliance is there's always something we can do to improve our lives, now and in he future. Everyone’s path to realistic hope via self-reliance is unique. We can’t just follow someone else’s path. The first step to becoming more self-reliant is to chart our own path. That is the essence of self-reliance.
Highlights of the Blog
The Economy Has Failed the American People, But It's Taboo To Say Why 12/18/24
All Three Pillars Holding Up the Economy Have Cracked 12/16/24
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
Made pommes de terre lyonnaise with breadfruit from our yard.
Unlike other vegetables, breadfruit contains all the amino acids of complete protein. Other items collected from the yard include 2 pounds of Northeaster green beans ($20 retail, as supermarkets are selling green beans for $7.99 for 12 ounces), limes, tangerines, papaya and avocado.
Here's a cooked (steamed whole) breadfruit:
What's on the Book Shelf
The Price of Inequality: How Today's Divided Society Endangers Our Future
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
Many links are behind paywalls. Most paywalled sites allow a few free articles per month if you register. It's the New Normal.
An Arctic Hamlet Is Sinking Into the Thawing Permafrost
Sweden’s ‘soft girl’ trend that celebrates women quitting work (via Cheryl A.)
The 4B Movement (Wikipedia)
Where Did the Global Elite Go to School? Hierarchy, Harvard, Home and Hegemony
As a doctor, here’s what I have learned from my own Alzheimer’s disease -- exercise is the "miracle pill"...
‘It’s like they were smoking something potent’: the ‘bizarre’ Paul McCartney alien musical that never was -- too bad it wasn't made...
Anarchist Incidents (1886-1920) -- 34 years of resistance to resolving extreme inequality....
EU looks to geothermal in drive for energy security, document shows
Men's Bodies (#15 in Work, Men, Muscle, Weather: A Memoir of Building Houses) -- a well-written account of a life in construction that rings true....
The Imminent threat of a market crash. -- a crash is "impossible," of course it is....
Always prepared: why prepping for doomsday is a logical choice for many Americans
Trouble Tax: We All Pay A Time Price For Bureaucratic Dysfunction -- one expanding manifestation of shadow work...
"To allow the market mechanism to be sole director of the fate of human beings and their natural environment, indeed, even of the amount and use of purchasing power, would result in the demolition of society." Karl Polanyi
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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