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Musings Report 2025-3 1-18-25 Is Digitization Catastrophic for Civilization?
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Is Digitization Catastrophic for Civilization?
Is Digitization Catastrophic for Civilization? A common-sense, practical case can be made for "yes."
The answer draws upon a number of my list of The 20 Dynamics That Will Shape the Next Decade, especially #13, over-optimization.
The fundamental dynamics of any civilization are 1) the quantity / scale of resources available to support the civilization and 2) how are those resources invested / consumed.
As a generalization, the analog world lends itself to durability in a number of critical ways. Prior to the Age of Hydrocarbons, the limits of available resources optimized a focus on durability, as there simply weren't enough resources available to squander on projects that were ephemeral. (When resources were squandered on ephemeral projects, that hastened the collapse of the offending civilization.)
The book The Upside of Down begins with an account of the immensity of the resources that had to be assembled to construct the Coliseum in ancient Rome.
If all those resources had been used to build a structure that only lasted five years, the structure could not have been rebuilt in five years because the civilization had devoted most of its surplus resources to the initial construction.
Per #4 in my list, the current global civilization is based on "no limits": since human ingenuity is limitless, so are resources and solutions.
Based on this belief of "no limits," we assume there will always be enough resources for everything we conjure up, durable and ephemeral alike.
The possibility that using resources for things that must constantly be replaced could deplete the affordable resources at the scale necessary to constantly replace everything doesn't register in a "no limits" world.
But this "no limits" world isn't the real world, it's a fantasy world constructed of modern mythologies. The real world is inherently limited in a number of ways.
Humans understood this in the pre-oil eras, and so the examples of Progress that were celebrated were durable public works. Yes, lavish public displays were common at the height of civilizations, but as resources were either depleted or became costly due to ephemeral consumption, then these lavish displays became less common or disappeared entirely.
The core problem with digitization is that it is optimized for short-term profits generated by replacement via planned obsolescence and accelerated product cycles, which demand a continuous flood of new novelties and updated models that obsolete previous versions to drive sales.
This optimization of replacement rather than durability also optimizes minimizing repairability and maintaining inventories of spare parts: if the product will be replaced in a year and isn't expected to last longer than five years, then why spend money that could be taken as profits on maintaining costly inventories?
It doesn't make financial sense to sacrifice profits for repairability, maintaining inventories of spare parts or durability.
The problem with products dependent on digital components / electronics is they can only be repaired with the exact same component. This is in marked contrast with analog devices, which lend themselves to repairs even if the original parts are scarce, costly or unavailable.
Here are examples from my own experience.
This is a photo of my current project, strengthening our 70-year old light-construction house against hurricanes. The Skilsaw is analog; it has no motherboard or electronic components. It has a 13-amp electric motor with brushes, bearings and a switch. It has lubricating oil for the worm-drive gears. Should any of these components fail, another saw could be cannibalized for the needed parts. With modest care, this saw could easily last 50 years.
Analog repairs can be kludgy and still work. When the ignition/key switch in my old Volkswagen Beetle broke 40 years ago, I replaced it with two cheap toggle switches. As you know from watching films of car thieves hot-wiring cars, there are three wires in the ignition: twisting two wires together activates the electrical system of the vehicle, and touching these wires with the third wire activates the starter motor to start the car.
The toggle switches handled these two operations: flipping the first switch turned on the electrical system, and flipping the second toggle for a few seconds started the car.
I've repaired a great many things in my 52 years of adulthood: cars, tools, bicycles, appliances, houses, furniture, stone walls, and so on. I recently repaired a gutter downspout by reconfiguring an aluminum beer can. (Guinness to the rescue.) This is the analog world.
Compare this to the digitally-dependent world. If your washer or dryer fails, you can (if you're willing) remove the top or back and find the electronic boards and components, one of which failed, turning your appliance (or car) into a brick.'
Inside the appliance is a helpful sheet listing the repair codes and which buttons to hold to display them.
The failed digital board cannot be replaced with a similar board--it must be the exact same board. There are many connectors and so hot-wiring the electronics to bypass the failed board isn't an option.
If this component is no longer available, the appliance is unrepairable. It's a brick that must be disposed of at the landfill / recycling depot.
What happens to devices that are potentially repairable but spare parts are no longer available because nobody maintained inventories or the equipment to make spare parts? They too become landfill.
A reader recently related the story of his high-end "lifetime guarantee" appliance which failed. The repair service had been offloaded to the third-party--a common practice nowadays-- and this third-party provider had informed the reader that parts were no longer available so the "lifetime guarantee" could not be fulfilled.
This is an example of over-optimization: everything that might have extended the service life of the product has been stripped away to optimize next quarter's profits.
Many readers have shared stories of their parents' refrigerator, freezer, washer, etc., still working 40 or 50 years after the initial purchase. My own experience is that modern appliances typically fail in a few years. I was able to replace the blown motherboard in a dryer, but this board--a few cheap commodity chips and molded plastic--was priced at an extortionist rate: roughly half the cost of a new dryer.
Consider the systemic costs of this optimization of replacement on the scale of an entire civilization.
Should critical components become unavailable, virtually every product with digitized components will fail and have to be replaced. There will be no repairs, kludgy or otherwise. Every appliance, every vehicle, every system today is on a path to becoming a brick that cannot be repaired, it can only be replaced, at a cost that will rise as the scale of resources needed to replace every manufactured object exceeds the resources that are affordable to the masses.
About ten years ago I turned on my original 1984 Macintosh computer and it booted up: My 31-Year Old Apple Mac Started Up Fine After 15 Years in a Box.
I doubt many digital devices made today will boot up 31 years from now, but there's a larger point here: my 40-year old Mac could still be functioning, but it is incompatible with everything currently in use. It would have to be operating much like the 1977-era Voyager 1 spacecraft, performing tasks in isolation. NASA’s Voyager 1 Resumes Sending Engineering Updates to Earth.
Readers tell me modern vehicles are amazingly maintenance-free, but this positive is offset by the hidden reality that these vehicles are unrepairable if specific components are out of stock, on back-order, etc. These components lend themselves to predatory / extortionist pricing because they're not easily manufactured and cannot be replaced with a kludgy substitute.
A system optimized for maximizing short-term profits generated by forced replacement has little concern for the vulnerabilities inherent to long global supply chains: if critical parts are no longer available, so much the better, as consumers are forced to buy a replacement.
Where does this over-optimization lead us should resources that are affordable to the masses turn out to be finite? Consider the resource footprint of a modern digitally-dependent appliance that only lasts five years, compared to an analog appliance that lasted 50 years. The modern system is egregiously wasteful of resources, as recycling the nine superfluous appliances is also energy-intensive; it's not "free.":
Copper producer Chile has slashed its projections of future production and now estimates peak production a mere two years away. Chile to lift copper output 6% in next decade, with peak in 2027.
On the present course, we may find that we squandered irreplaceable (in terms of cost) resources in a misguided focus on short-term profits reaped by replacing everything under the sun every few years. A future littered with failed digitally dependent products that we no longer have the means to replace would be a catastrophe, and common-sense practicality discerns no other possible outcome.
Highlights of the Blog
Podcast:
Charles Hugh Smith on the Extremes in the U.S. Economy and Markets. (26 min)
Is Placing a Wager in a Casino an "Investment"? 1/16/25
Catch-20: The 20 Dynamics That Will Shape the Next Decade 1/15/25
What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions? 1/13/25
Best Thing That Happened To Me This Week
we made pickles with chayote from the yard--always a welcome addition to sandwiches. Making your own pickles allows you to cut the sugar and adjust the vinegar to taste.
We also harvested three different Chinese vegetables that have reached the stage where the leaves can be trimmed for stir-frying and the plants will produce more. To my eye, these leafy vegetables are amazingly beautiful.
What's on the Book Shelf
Reforging Excalibur: Creating a Sustainable and Relevant Defense for 21st-Century America (via B.J.)
From Left Field
NOTE TO NEW READERS: This list is not comprised of articles I agree with or that I judge to be correct or of the highest quality. It is representative of the content I find interesting as reflections of the current zeitgeist. The list is intended to be perused with an open, critical, occasionally amused mind.
Many links are behind paywalls. Most paywalled sites allow a few free articles per month if you register. It's the New Normal.
Climate Change, Overshoot and the Demise of Large Cities.
California Incinerated Its Insurance Market (via Tom D.)
Newsom Suspends State Environmental Rules for Rebuilding After Fires (via Chad D.)
Marc Andreessen: It’s Morning Again In America (1:14 min)(via Jim E.)
Benchtop DNA printers are coming soon—and biosecurity experts are worried (via Cheryl A.)
Schumann Resonances and the Human Body: Questions About Interactions, Problems and Prospects (via Atreya S.)
Chile to lift copper output 6% in next decade, with peak in 2027.
Gamers tear into Musk for 'faking' video game prowess.
We May Be on the Brink of Finding the Real Planet Nine (a.k.a. Planet X)
The Age of Climate Disaster Is Here: Preparing for a Future of Extreme Weather.
The Ten MegaRisks--Per Council for the Human Future.
Trump Unveils "Official" MemeCoin Late Friday; 12 Hours Later It Is Up 16,000% To $30 Billion.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." Giordano Bruno
Thanks for reading--
charles |
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