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The Scandals Yet To Come   (October 25, 2005)


One of my correspondents has long pondered the insidious consequences of the shady, lightly regulated dealings of our "market economy": derivatives, "naked shorting" (the practise of selling shares in a company you don't even own to manipulate the price down) and the five-card Monte known as "accounting" in cases such as Enron.

Her comments on the recent implosion of Refco may well be precient:
Last week, about 30 big investors and bankers held an unusual two-hour conference call to figure out what to do about Refco, which besides commodities also handles exchange-listed stocks, currencies and private trades of the "complex financial instruments known as derivatives". Its customers are chiefly financial institutions as well as some sophisticated individual investors.

It took 36 years to build Refco Inc., but less than five days for the commodities-brokerage powerhouse to begin unraveling. What they should be saying here is that it has been double dealing its investors for 36 years rather than "building the company for 36 years." One wonders just where these outrageous phantom figures are going to go. Into the Black Hole of our 'outer space' economy?
Where indeed? The immense fraud perpetrated within the obscured spinning wheels of Refco should sow some healthy skepticism about the potential for other hedge fund unravelings. But the markets barely took notice of the salient points of the Refco case: huge frauds are still going undetected until the damage has already been wreaked, and the amount of precariously leveraged derivatives such hedge funds control is completely unknown. The Refco unraveling suggests that the risk of a cascading series of implosions which could precipitate a full-blown financial panic (a la the 1997 "Asian Contagion" or the 1998 Long Term Capital Management meltdown) is increasing.

Yet the press and the markets scarcely noted the danger signs being flashed as Refco unraveled. Is such ignorance bliss? History suggests that willfully ignoring the risks created by heavily intertwined, massively leveraged derivatives lays the foundation for a "great unwinding" of all such financial instruments.


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copyright © 2005 Charles Hugh Smith. All rights reserved in all media.

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