Error: Embedded data could not be displayed.




The One Real Economic Indicator: "Upgrade to Premium"

May 12, 2025

If you want to escape immiseration, that option is available--upgrade to Premium.


I propose we set aside the conventional economic measures (GDP, unemployment, corporate profits, etc.) in favor of a more real-world metric: how many times we're hectored to "upgrade to Premium" to regain services that were once part of what we already paid for.

I submit that this metric is a far better measure of what's really going on in the economy than abstractions like GDP which say nothing about our real-world quality of life or whose getting the lion's share of the spoils.

If we track how many times we're hectored to "upgrade to Premium," it's clear the economy is in some terminal stage of decay beneath the happy story of soaring corporate profits. Or perhaps more accurately, the economy is in a terminal stage of decay in which corporate profits depend on reducing the quality of daily life as the last remaining means of pushing profits higher.

Consider a subscription to a major national newspaper. A subscription was once simple: you paid the publisher a monthly fee and you received the entire newspaper in print or online. Now you pay the monthly fee, click on a recipe link, and are nagged to "upgrade to Premium" to regain access to the Food section.

OK, forget the recipe, let's check the sports section. Click on a story, and voila, we're nagged to "upgrade to Premium" to access the "premium" sports section.

When did the Sports and Food sections become available only to those paying First Class rates? Please tell me this is a parody of corporate greed. Oh, it's now the New Normal. If that's the case, isn't our economy now a parody of a functioning economy?

Next up, a bulk email service. As we set up the email, we're prompted to select "send email now" or "schedule email to be sent later." If we choose the latter, we're prompted to "upgrade to Premium" for what was once part of the service we're already paying for.

Anti-virus software was once a complete set of tools with a single price. Not any more. Now when we run a scan, we're prompted to "clean up all the junk files." If we click on that link, surprise, we're prompted to "upgrade to Premium."

If you want to book a specific seat on an airline flight, that's extra now, too. And so on.

This immiseration of the quality of our lives is extraordinarily profitable. Here is the FRED (Federal Reserve) chart of corporate profits' share of domestic national income. Note that corporate profits' share of the national income poked above 7% in the go-go 1960s and 2000s, but only poked above 6% in the go-go 1990s.



Corporate profits' share of the national income in the 6% to 7% was good enough for the economy to expand smartly. Now corporate profits are around 9% of the national income and we're hovering on the edge of stagflation and immiseration as wages' share of the national income has continued its 50-year decline.



Here's a chart showing the decline of the entirety of wages, including high earners.



Corporate profits have soared far beyond historic averages.



A reader suggested the recent leap in corporate profits was the result of the money supply expanding. M3 money supply rose 40% from February 2020 ($15.45 trillion, pre-Covid) to July 2022 ($21.7 trillion). Meanwhile, corporate profits jumped from $2.3 trillion to $4.3 trillion in that time--an 87% increase, twice the percentage increase in M3 money supply.



To state the truth--that corporate profits are now dependent on the immiseration of wage earners who continue to lose ground--is taboo because we now worship a two-headed god: increasing profits and accumulating wealth by any means available--including the slow drip of immiseration and the erosion of the quality of the citizenry's lives.

After all, we don't need no stinkin' quality of life--all we need is soaring corporate profits. If you want to escape immiseration, that option is available--upgrade to Premium.

New podcasts:

Dismantling the Economic Divide (1 hour) (hosts Emerson and Amy)

Retirement Lifestyle Advocates w/ Charles Hugh Smith (host Dennis Tubergen)





My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century
print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF)

Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)

When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free


Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Subscribe to my Substack for free




The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $20, (Kindle $9.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) audiobook, Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF)


What if growth--and policies to accelerate growth--are no longer working because our fix for every problem--growth at any cost--is failing? We're told Progress is inevitable as a result of technology, but everyday life is getting harder, not easier--the opposite of Progress, what I call Anti-Progress.

What if the real source of the unraveling is far deeper than economics or politics? What if the problem is what we see as the inevitable destiny of humanity--Progress--is actually a modern mythology, disconnected from the real-world consequences of growth for growth's sake?

We indignantly reject that Progress is a mythology, but our need for mythology hasn't gone away because we've mastered technology; we've created a modern mythology of technology that is heedless of its own consequences.

To truly progress, we need a new mythology aligned to 21st century realities. That's the goal of this book.

Read the Introduction and first chapter for free



Self-Reliance in the 21st Century print $18, (Kindle $8.95, audiobook $13.08 (96 pages, 2022) Read the first chapter for free (PDF)


Just as no one was left unaffected by the rise of globalization, no one will be unaffected by its demise. The only response that reduces our vulnerability is self-reliance: de-risk your life by carving a path that works for you.

When Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote his famous essay Self-Reliance in 1841, the economy was localized and households supplied many of their own essentials. Now we're dependent on distant sources for our essentials.

For Emerson, self-reliance is thinking for ourselves rather than taking the conventional path. Self-reliance today means reordering our priorities and values.

Self-reliance is often confused with self-sufficiency--the equivalent of Thoreau's cabin. But self-reliance isn't about piling up money or an isolated cabin; it's about cooperating with trustworthy others in productive networks.

The book details the essential mindset of self-reliance and 18 nuts and bolts principles of self-reliance in the 21st century.

Read excerpts for free

Podcast with Richard Bonugli: Self Reliance in the 21st Century (43 min)



Recent entries:

The One Real Economic Indicator: "Upgrade to Premium" May 12, 2025

Tariffs Are Not Enough May 8, 2025

It Was 20 Years Ago Today I Started this Blog: What Surprises Me May 6, 2025

The Terminal Rot in Corporate America May 5, 2025

25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead? May 2, 2025

The Potential Winners and Losers in Reshoring Supply Chains April 30, 2025

The Winners and Losers in 21st Century America April 28, 2025

The Wile E. Coyote Recession April 23, 2025

What's "Normal" in a Hyper-Normalized World? April 21, 2025

The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability April 18, 2025

This Nails It: The Doom Loop of Housing Construction Quality April 16, 2025

Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything April 14, 2025

Last Gasp of the Landfill Economy April 10, 2025


January 2025 posts         February 2025 posts         March 2025 posts         April 2025 posts

2023 archives         2024 archives         Archives 2005-2024







Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. All contributors are listed below in acknowledgement of my gratitude.

Thank you, Vytenis ($70), for your wondrously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

 

Thank you, Lawrence D. ($70), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.


Thank you, DrMumPower ($70), for your magnificently generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

 

Thank you, Katherine A ($7/month), for your superbly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.



           


      go to Kindle edition


     


     



Of Two Minds Site Links

home     musings     my books     archives     books/films     policies/disclosures     social media/search     Aphorisms     How to Contribute, Subscribe/Unsubscribe     sites/blogs of interest     original music/songs     Get a Job (book)     contributors       my definition of success       why readers donate/subscribe to Of Two Minds     mobile site (Blogspot)     mobile site (m.oftwominds.com)


HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER: Nothing on this site should be construed as investment advice or guidance. It is not intended as investment advice or guidance, nor is it offered as such.... (read more)

WHY EMAIL TO THIS SITE IS READ BUT MAY NOT BE ACKNOWLEDGED: Regrettably, I am so sorely pressed for time and energy that I am unable to respond to the vast majority of emails. Please know I read all emails, but I can only devote a very limited number of hours to this blog and all correspondence....




Subscriptions to the Weekly Musings Reports

Subscribers enable Of Two Minds to post free content. Without your financial support, the free content would disappear for the simple reason that I cannot keep body and soul together on my meager book sales alone. Your financial support is very much appreciated.

Subscribers ($7/mo) and those who have contributed $70 or more annually receive weekly exclusive Musings Reports ($70/year is about $1.35 a week).

Each weekly Musings Report offers four features:
1. Exclusive essay on an extraordinarily diverse range of insightful topics
2. Summary of the blog this week
3. Best thing that happened to me this week
4. From Left Field (a curated selection of interesting links)

There are four easy ways to subscribe: Substack, Patreon, US Mail and Paypal:

How to Contribute, Subscribe/Unsubscribe to Of Two Minds



What subscribers are saying about the Musings:
"What makes you a channel worth paying for? It's actually pretty simple - you possess a clarity of thought that most of us can only dream of, and a perspective that allows you to focus on the truth with laser-like precision." Jim S.

Goldentine (Substack subscriber)
"I really appreciate your economic insights and focus on self reliance. Thanks for making the case that small, independent, and agile is a survival strategy that can work. I have always had that instinct, but your writing has provided a logic that allows me to see through the mirage of mainstream economic data and plot a course that is within my reach."

Jane VanFossen (Substack subscriber)
"You are better than I am at using precise words to describe transformations I've been witnessing in recent years. My feelings are amorphous, your words have a sharp, definitive edge. That's why your writing is valuable to me."

Brian Hull (Substack subscriber)
"Charles, I've followed your work for years, and find loads of value in your original insights. My apologies for being a content freeloader up until now. I believe you are one of the hardest working authors in this space, as evidenced by your prodigious works, and the quantity is matched in quality. We're all better off for it. Thank you. Brian "

Kelly (Substack subscriber)
"I supported your work because of the ultimate purpose of your writing: taking control of and improving our own well-being and security. Plus, you sound a lot like my father (who has been gone for many, many years and I miss him). I feel like your writing is a reflection of what he would be telling me now about how to deal with the days, weeks and years to come. Thank you."

"This guy is THE leading visionary on reality. He routinely discusses things which no one else has talked about, yet, turn out to be quite relevant months later."
Walt Howard, commenting about CHS on another blog.


"You shine a bright and piercing light out into an ever-darkening world."
Jeremy Beck


Thank you very much for supporting oftwominds.com with your subscription or contribution.




Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms:

"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity."
(Douglas MacArthur)

"We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle)

"Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson)

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.)

"He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones)

"When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac)

"Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger)

"Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam)

"The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley)

"A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS)

"Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte)

"The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu)

"Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur)

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill)

"Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi)

"The realm of gratitude is boundless." (CHS, 11/25/15)

"History doesn't have a reverse gear." (CHS, 12/22/15)

Smith's Law of Conservation of Risk: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)(thanks to Lew G. for retitling the idea.)

Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only.

The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16)

My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me)

"We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16)

"Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16)

"Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16)

"Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17)

"We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18)

"Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas)

"Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB)

"When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19)

"Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau)

"Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19)

"Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22)

"Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22)

"The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22)

"There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22)

"Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22)

"When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22)

"It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23)

"Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24)

"We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24)

"It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W.

"Looking younger is mere technique; thinking younger demands creativity." CHS (10/16/24)

"Tell me what's taboo and I'll tell you the truths that threaten the status quo." CHS (12/15/24)

"This is the core of the Attention Economy: the ultimate addiction is the addiction to ourselves." CHS (1/28/25)

click here for more Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms.





Error: Embedded data could not be displayed.
   

Terms of Service:
All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.

Our Privacy Policy:
Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.

PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS
This section covers disclosures on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for users residing within EEA only. GDPR replaces the existing Directive 95/46/ec, and aims at harmonizing data protection laws in the EU that are fit for purpose in the digital age. The primary objective of the GDPR is to give citizens back control of their personal data. Please follow the link below to access InvestingChannel s General Data Protection Notice.
http://stg.media.investingchannel.com/gdpr-notice/

Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising. If you do not want any personal information that may be collected by third-party advertising to be sold, please follow the instructions on this page: Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information.

Regarding Cookies:
This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly.

Our Commission Policy:
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. I also earn a commission on purchases of precious metals via BullionVault. I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.



   
   
   
    home     email me (no promise of response, sorry, here's why)     mirror site