|
|
 |
Covid Has Triggered The Next Great Financial Crisis May 3, 2021
What's left are the 'fatal synergies' of soaring debt and leverage, diminishing returns on
stimulus, the substitution of credit for savings and the coming deflationary tsunami that pops
all the speculative bubbles.
Imagine a once modest but sturdy home built near a cliff to maximize the vistas. Over the decades, the foundation slowly degraded and the house moved imperceptably closer to the unstable edge of the cliff. Those who observed the slippage and the potential for eventual disaster were either derided as alarmists or ignored. Given the enviable location and views, the home rose in value and a series of increasingly gaudy additions were added, completely obscuring the once-modest exterior with cheap imitations of long-lasting, time-tested materials (plastic trim and brittle fake-marble veneers). The foundations of these ostentatious additions were slapdash, shallow and poorly made, as the goal was not durability but appearance. The low-quality additions accelerated the slide to the unstable cliff edge, and in 2019 the viewing deck broke away and crashed into the canyon below. The repairs were hasty and the residents were assured all was well--in fact, better than ever. In 2020, the weak foundation of the gaudiest, lowest-quality addition crumbled. The response of the owners was to fill the widening crack in the decaying structure and spray on a new coat of paint. There--good as new, the residents were told. But this was not true. The house is now teetering on the precariously unstable cliff edge. Ironically, the vast majority of the residents have moved to the game room, which is now cantilevered over thin air. The slightest movement will tip the entire decayed structure over the cliff. That decayed, precariously unstable structure is the U.S. economy, and Covid was the catalyst that nudged the economy right to the edge. Gordon Long and I discuss the causes and consequences in our new video program, Covid Has Triggered The Next Great Financial Crisis (34:46). Chief among the many causes is a very basic one that's easy to understand: America has consumed more than it has produced for decades, and filled the gap with imports purchased with borrowed money and currency created out of thin air. As Gordon and I explain, this is a very well-worn path to instability and collapse: governments (which now include nominally independent central banks) have always responded to declines in productivity and affordable energy/materials, the expansion of a parasitic elite and excessive spending with the same bag of financial tricks: 1. They borrow more money, eventually borrowing more to pay interest on existing debts, greasing the slide to default and insolvency. 2. They defraud the users of their currency by devaluing the currency. In the old days, this was accomplished by substituting base metals for silver or gold in the minting of coinage. Eventually the coins contained only a trace of silver. Users soon caught on and the result was the coinage lost purchasing power, a.k.a. inflation destroyed the value of the officially issued money. In today's fiat currency regime, central banks create trillions of new units of "money" with a few keystrokes, effectively diluting the value of all existing currency. 3. Desperate for revenues, governments raise taxes, which despite all claims to the contrary by political leaders, fall most heavily on the productive middle class. Since the parasitic elite will never accept any consequential reduction of their wealth or power, the higher taxes and economic stagnationthat result from these three policies crush the middle class, which was the engine of productivity and demand that enabled the parasitic elite to live large. These are key dynamics in what Gordon calls the killing of the golden goose, the productive synergies that generate widespread prosperity and opportunity. What's left are the fatal synergies of soaring debt and leverage, diminishing returns on stimulus, the substitution of credit for savings and the coming deflationary tsunami (53 min) that pops all the speculative bubbles, setting up the destabilization and cliff-dive of the entire decayed, flimsy structure--The Next Great Financial Crisis that cannot be papered over with more central bank legerdemain. There's more in our 34-minute video program: 
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. My new book is available! A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts (Kindle $7, print $17, audiobook now available $17.46) Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF). The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction. Recent Podcasts: Covid Has Triggered The Next Great Financial Crisis My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts My recent books: A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF). Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. 
Thousands apply for grueling jobs in Amazon warehouses, low-paid serfdom
with only one purpose: increasing the profits of billionaires. Wouldn't it be beneficial if those
people had an alternative source of paid work that served the interests of their family and community?
Many people dismiss my proposed alternative (CLIME) as too idealistic to work in the real world. Nobody says corporations are too idealistic to work in the real world, yet CLIME is a system of community owned and run corporations. The only difference between the two is the purpose and ownership. CLIME: Community Owned Corporations The world has entered an era of profound uncertainty. The Old Normal is gone for good, and the deck is shifting ominously beneath our feet. Now is the moment to ask: what would a fairer, more sustainable system look like? How would it be better for me, humanity and the planet? Even before the global upheavals, our system was failing. Now that it's unraveling, it's time for a new arrangement that's actually sustainable on our resource-depleted planet that doesn't favor wealthy insiders. But those gorging on inequality will never accept reforms that strip away their unearned privileges, and so the only practical way forward is a Hacker's Teleology. What's a Hacker's Teleology? A hack is a workaround in a kludgy, broken system-- a new way of connecting the dots. Teleology means the destination we end up reaching because that's where the dots lead. In this book I connect the dots of my own life experiences to show how a sustainably fair way of organizing human activity would work. In telling my story, I'm also telling our story, because we all share our limited-resources world and the same aspirations for fairness, belonging, getting ahead and a say in our future. So let's get started on an arrangement that actually works for all of us--and our world. Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF). The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction. A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts end September 30 (Kindle $7, print $17)
Recent entries: Covid Has Triggered The Next Great Financial Crisis May 5, 2021 Insights into Risk: Taleb and Tyson May 3, 2021 Which Lifeboat Will You Choose? April 30, 2021 America Is Exceptionally...Kleptocratic: Wealth/Power Inequality and the Slide Into Disorder April 29, 2021 Warning Light Flashing Red April 27, 2021 What's Yours Is Now Mine: America's Era of Accelerating Expropriation April 26, 2021 The People Have Lost Faith in the State, and the State Has Lost Faith in its People April 23, 2021 The Only Way to Get Ahead Now Is Crazy-Risky Speculation April 21, 2021
America's Fatal Synergies
April 19, 2021
Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency. All contributors are listed below in acknowledgement of my gratitude.
Of Two Minds Site Links home musings my books archives books/films policies/disclosures social media/search Aphorisms How to Contribute, Subscribe/Unsubscribe sites/blogs of interest original music/songs Get a Job (book) contributors my definition of success why readers donate/subscribe to Of Two Minds mobile site (Blogspot) mobile site (m.oftwominds.com)
HUGE GIANT BIG FAT DISCLAIMER: Nothing on this site should be construed as investment advice or guidance. It is not intended as investment advice or guidance, nor is it offered as such.... (read more) WHY EMAIL TO THIS SITE IS READ BUT MAY NOT BE ACKNOWLEDGED: Regrettably, I am so sorely pressed for time and energy that I am unable to respond to the vast majority of emails. Please know I read all emails, but I can only devote a very limited number of hours to this blog and all correspondence....
Contributions
Contributors and subscribers enable Of Two Minds to post free content. Without your
financial support, the free content would disappear for the simple reason
that I cannot keep body and soul together on my meager book sales alone.
Become
a patron of my work via patreon.com
How to Contribute, Subscribe/Unsubscribe to Of Two Minds
SPECIAL APPEAL TO READERS OF OFTWOMINDS from longtime correspondent Cheryl A.:
The addition of the weekly musings has been an extra bonus for supporters that has
provided further insight into the markets, as well as the world around us (often
providing a much needed smile).
I have no doubt that those who generously contribute to this site recognize the value
that it offers. I hope that those of you who visit, but have not yet contributed,
will consider doing so. Your support is essential in helping to maintain such an
important resource.
Thank you, Cheryl, for this vote of confidence. I can only promise that
I will continue to do my best.
"This guy is THE leading visionary on reality.
He routinely discusses things which no one else has talked about, yet,
turn out to be quite relevant months later."
"You shine a bright and piercing light out into an ever-darkening world."
Contributions in any amount are greatly appreciated.
Subscriptions to the Weekly Musings Reports
Subscribers ($5/mo) and those who have contributed $50 or more annually
(or made multiple contributions totalling $50 or more) receive
weekly exclusive Musings Reports via email ($50/year is about 96 cents a week).
Each weekly Musings Report offers five features:
At readers' request, there is also a $10/month subscription option.
(Everyone at the $10/month rate has the opportunity to add another person
to the Musings email list for free.)
What subscribers are saying about the Musings
(Musings samples here):
The "unsubscribe" link is for when you find the usual drivel here
insufferable.
How to Contribute, Subscribe/Unsubscribe to Of Two Minds
Become
a $5/month patron of my work via patreon.com
Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms:
"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity." (Douglas MacArthur) "We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle) "Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson) "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.) "He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones) "When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac) "Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger) "Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam) "The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley) "A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS) "Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte) "The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu) "Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur) "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill) "Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi) "The realm of gratitude is boundless." (CHS, 11/25/15) "History doesn't have a reverse gear." (CHS, 12/22/15) Smith's Law of Conservation of Risk: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)(thanks to Lew G. for retitling the idea.) Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only. The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16) My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me) "We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16) "Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16) "Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16) "Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17) "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18) "Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas) "Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB) "When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19) "Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau) "Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19) |
|
||||||||||||
|
All content, HTML coding, format design, design elements, original images, videos and musical compositions
and recordings on www.oftwominds.com are protected by copyright
© 2021 Charles Hugh Smith, All global rights
reserved in all media, unless otherwise credited or noted.
Terms of Service:
All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.
Our Privacy Policy:
PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS
Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
Regarding Cookies:
Our Commission Policy:
|
|
|
|||||
| home email me (no promise of response, sorry, here's why) mirror site | |||||
