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Are We Poor Or Prosperous?   (February 21, 2006)


Are we in over our heads in debt and heading for the poorhouse, or are we flush with trillions in easy cash, just waiting to be lavished on more goods and services? Shouldn't the answer be obvious? It is to those happy-happy sources like BusinessWeek which provide a steady supply of reasons why everything economy-wise is just peachy, or even super-peachy.

Supporting the peachy cause is BusinessWeek's little chart of rising wealth (right) and their accompanying article Why More Households Are Feeling Flush. The thesis is simple: household wealth has climbed by $10 trillion since 2001, so no wonder Americans are spending money like water--they're rich and constantly getting richer due to the rise in their housing and stock portfolios.

Sounds pleasant, but BusinessWeek left out the important statistic: what percentage of American households are participating in the non-housing part of rising wealth? As we all know, 90% of the non-housing wealth in the U.S. is held by the top 10% of the population, meaning that BusinessWeek's glorious increase in wealth is actually highly concentrated in a few hands, not spread around like their chart might suggest to the unwitting or gullible.

A more accurate nationwide look--and a far more sobering one--can be gained by reading a recent piece on Yahoo Finance: Americans' Debt: Worse Than You Think?:
According to Kasriel's calculation, last year Americans spent approximately $472 billion more than they earned after taxes -- a negative savings rate of 5.2 percent. That spending is double the previous year -- and a record high.

Going back to 1929, Kasriel found just a dozen years in which households spent more than they earned by his calculation. Two were during the Great Depression. Three were in the decade following World War II, when consumers unleashed pent-up savings accumulated during the war (when there was little available to consume). The other seven years of negative savings have occurred since 1999.

Whichever reality you believe, it's clear that Americans are highly leveraged. The ratio of debt to assets hit a near record 18.2 percent in the third quarter of 2005, the most recent data available from the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds Database. This ratio, tracked since 1952, measures the amount of debt Americans have, relative to the market value of all their assets -- savings accounts, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. In the early 1980s, the ratio was around 13 percent; in the early 1950s, 7 percent.

Meanwhile, the debt service ratio -- the percentage of after-tax household income that goes to cover required principal and interest payments on debt -- hit a record high of 13.75% in the third quarter of 2005, the most recent data available.
Sounds like 90% of us are heading for debtor's prison, while the 10% who own 90% of the stocks and bonds are feeling just fine. For how long, no one can say, but if the 90% stop spending, how long before the top 10% start feeling a little less wealthy?

Put another way--if housing falls apart under an avalanche of foreclosures, how long can stocks keep rising? How long will it take for that "free" $10 trillion in wealth to vanish in a haze of bubble-popping panic? Perhaps not as long as you might think.

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copyright © 2006 Charles Hugh Smith. All rights reserved in all media.

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