weblog/wEssays     home
 

If Everything Is So Great, Why Are Storefronts and Offices Empty?   (January 16, 2006)


I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, and home to resurgent tourism and technology industries. Yet empty storefronts and office spaces abound. Is this just a local aberration, or a case in which the observer sees what he is looking for?

Based on this factoid about commercial vacancy rates in San Jose (capital of Silicon Valley), I don't think it's merely bias on my part:
"San Jose vacancy rate: Occupancy rose nearly 4 percent among downtown's 15 Class A office buildings. That brings the vacancy rate to 21.4 percent. Occupancy fell slightly for the downtown core's 51 Class B and C buildings, bringing the vacancy rate to 19.5 percent."
A 20 percent vacancy rate isn't exactly a sign of robust economic growth. Although other parts of the U.S. are doing better than San Jose, check out these news bits from National Real Estate Investor:
When Equity Office Properties Trust (EOP) slashed its dividend last month, few people were surprised. The nation’s largest office landlord hasn’t covered its dividend by earnings since late 2002. But the 34% dividend cut from $2 to $1.32 a share was an about-face for EOP Chairman Sam Zell, who has often said the dividend is “sacred.”

2005 was a year of recovery for the office sector, and most industry sources expect more of the same as the New Year unfolds. Analysts caution, however, that the resurgence will not be uniform as market gains will be sharply divided between coastal cities and nearly everything in between.

7 World Trade Center, one of the first towers to rise along Ground Zero, is lagging behind the recovery with just 40,000 sq. ft. of its entire 1.7 million sq. ft. leased as of late December. The problem, say brokerage sources, are the above-market rents at 7 World Trade Center.
So if commercial real estate is doing so well, why is one of the largest commercial property owners in the U.S., EOP, slashing its heretofore sacrosanct dividend? Would EOP cut the divvie if things were going swimmingly? Of course not.

As for 7 World Trade Center, could this be a sign that rapacious greed has the real estate market by the throat? The surest way to create empty space on Main Street and Business Park, U.S.A. is to jack the lease rates up to the point that business owners can't make a living, pay taxes and pay their lease. The largely empty 7 World Trade Center suggests that point has been reached--perhaps first in Manhattan, but undoubtedly elsewhere as well.

According to the Wall Street Journal's survey dated 1/10/06, commercial real estate is booming overseas: (hence the photo of a Parisian storefront)
For the first time in five years, rents for top-quality office space increased as vacancies fell among 10 of the largest global markets.

Markets improved across the board, but Hong Kong and London had the most eye-catching numbers, according to a study by CB Richard Ellis, the Los Angeles-based real-estate-services firm. By the end of 2005, Hong Kong landlords bumped up their asking rates for leases on Class A properties by 45% to $58.81 a square foot, as the vacancy rate fell to 4.8% from 6.9% in December 2004.

As with the improving fundamentals seen in many parts of the U.S. over the past few quarters, many of the largest global markets have benefited from increasing demand for office space while new construction remains constrained.
That sounds hale and hearty, but recall that both Europe and Asia depend heavily on exports to the American consumer to fuel their currently-hot economies. If the U.S. consumer falters, or the residential real estate bubble which has enabled the American consumer's massive 5-year spending spree falters, then what exactly will support high lease rates in Asia or the E.U.? It's a question worth pondering, for it surely isn't their own consumers.

* * *

copyright © 2006 Charles Hugh Smith. All rights reserved in all media.

I would be honored if you linked this wEssay to your site, or printed a copy for your own use.


* * *
 
  weblog/wEssays     home