charles hugh smith-Weblog and Essays

Choose One: Housing Is Shelter, or Housing Is Just Another Asset in a Bubble Economy

June 4, 2026

Those seeking housing as shelter cannot compete with wealthy households and entities seeking places to park credit-generated capital for income and/or appreciation.

This will get massive pushback because it's true: either Housing Is Shelter, or Housing Is Just Another Asset in a Bubble Economy--it can't be both. This reality gets pushback because the conversion of housing from shelter into just another asset bubbling higher in a bubble-dependent economy has been so profitable for those inflating the bubble.

The basic pushback goes like this: housing has always been an investment, nothing has changed. This is classic misdirection. This is like saying "stock market options have always been a way to hedge positions" to justify the transition from hedging to extremes of gambling, i.e. zero-day expiration options (ODTE).

Whenever I suggest that housing is being hoarded by the wealthy and corporations as a low-risk asset to park credit-generated capital, I get pushback: no, I'm told, the percentage of housing that's empty most or all of the year owned by the wealthy and corporations is tiny, as is the percentage of housing owned as short-term vacation rentals (STVRs).

The problem with these claims is they're based on completely fraudulent / inaccurate statistics. There is no regulatory system that audits whether owners who obtained "owner occupied" mortgages actually live in the dwelling, or whether owners (especially those hidden behind LLCs and other cloaking mechanisms) are "owner occupants" as claimed.

Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance (Philadelphia Federal Reserve) Occupancy fraud has been suggested as a contributor to the housing bubble. We show it was pervasive and remains present.

In other words, even the most cursory audits find significant percentages of "owner occupied" housing is vacant most or all of the time or is an unregistered short-term vacation rental. Anecdotally, many upper-middle class households own not just vacation / second homes in rural locales but "investment" homes that are empty or they use occasionally in urban areas, which due to high demand / valuations are hoarded because selling them in a bubble economy means the sellers will be unable to buy back into the market in the future.

The "monetize your empty room" AirBnB idea that began the short-term vacation rental market has transmogrified into a monster consuming the housing market in resort locales. Surveys have found that 15% or more of all available housing in resort locales is now absentee-owner short-term vacation rentals, and two-thirds of condominium buyers are out-of-state.
STVRs Have Destroyed America's Resort Towns

Some argue this doesn't matter because resort housing tends to be in rural regions with few jobs. It matters to local residents who are priced out. But "investment" housing isn't limited to resorts; there are an unknown but consequential number of vacant / STVR "investment" housing units in urban areas with jobs and strong demand for permanent housing.

Cities with rent control such as San Francisco and New York have renters who keep their low-cost flat vacant while living abroad. Since the rent-controlled apartment cannot be replaced once it's surrendered, it makes sense to hoard the rental for future or occasional use. Again, there is no system of auditing who actually lives in a dwelling as a permanent resident, as this is viewed in the US as an invasion of privacy.

(In Japan, local authorities keep close tabs on who is actually living in every dwelling as a matter of course. When we stayed in a friend's temporarily vacant flat for a few days, officials came to the door to check on who we were.)

The monetary policies of suppressing interest rates and expanding credit have favored the wealthy who have the income to support additional mortgages and the need to park their expanding capital somewhere. Housing is attractive because it's less volatile than the stock market and offers higher appreciation in a bubble economy than bonds.

Those seeking housing as shelter cannot compete with wealthy households and entities seeking places to park credit-generated capital for income and/or appreciation. In a bubble-dependent economy, there's no need to go through all the trouble of renting an empty dwelling, as the appreciation alone makes the investment worthwhile. Renting out an "investment" incurs risks and costs that are best avoided--unless the property generates a hefty profit as a remotely managed unregistered short-term vacation rental.

Once again, the pushback is pushback against inconvenient truths that threaten the ownership class that has reaped gains from housing as an asset class in a bubble economy. It's now evident that large corporate owners of thousands of rental units have used predatory pricing--oops, I mean dynamic pricing--to jack up rents in markets they are dominant players in; once the price point is set higher, small landlords push up their rents to the new "market price."

In a non-bubble economy, credit is scarce and expensive, and so asset bubbles can't be inflated as credit inflates. As credit inflates, the pool of money sloshing around seeking a low-risk home for safety and appreciation expands, and this pool sloshes into housing, driving home prices and rents out of reach of those whose income is wages, not wages plus capital-generated income.

Bubbles in housing generate artificial scarcity, scarcity not in the total number of dwellings but in the number of dwellings available and within reach for those seeking shelter, i.e. whatever is left after wealthy households and corporations with access to credit snap up housing as a low-risk place to park capital that offers tax benefits and appreciation.

Housing affordability has reached historic lows.

Housing payments have reached historic highs.

The wealthiest 10% have used their income and credit to bid up assets which bubble higher in bubble-dependent economies.

So here's the truth: we can choose housing as shelter or housing as an asset in a bubble economy, but we can't choose both. Housing as an asset in a bubble economy pushes housing out of reach of those seeking shelter.

And of course there's pushback against the truth that ours is a bubble-dependent economy. For a definitive answer, let's see how well the economy is doing after all the credit-asset-speculative bubbles pop and decline back to their starting point.

My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com

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Investing In Revolution print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (145 pages, 2025)

Only now do we see that we've been investing in revolution for decades--not the revolutions we thought we were investing in, revolutions in technology and finance, but in the social revolution made inevitable by the extremes that we've reached in our single-minded pursuit of private gains.

The pendulum that we've pushed to an extreme will swing to the opposite extreme, and the artifices that have propped up a facade a stability for decades will accelerate the disorder rather than reverse it.

We now stand at the point of decision, and this book offers a path to a reformation and renewal that serves the shared interests of us all, not just the few.

Introduction (free)

Ultra-Processed Life print $16, (Kindle $7.95, audiobook, Hardcover $20 (129 pages, 2025)

Ultra-Processed Life: the substitution of a synthetic, commoditized, very profitable facsimile for what was once authentic.

Ultra-Processed Life is my term for everything that is analogous to ultra-processed snacks: attractively marketed, instantly alluring, easy to consume, addictive by design, tasty in the moment but harmful over time, its origins a black box of unknown processes, the brightly colored product bearing no resemblance to the real-world ingredients, an idealized form of what is inherently imperfect, untethered from the natural world.

As with many others, the catalyst for my exploration was a life-threatening medical crisis that did not have a specific cause.

This led me to wonder if our entire way of life is like an ultra-processed snack: tasty but not healthy, edible but stripped of the nutrients we need to be healthy, addictive by design. Introduction (free)

The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $20, (Kindle $9.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) audiobook, Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF)

What if the policies to accelerate growth are no longer working because our fix for every problem--growth at any cost--is failing? We're told Progress is inevitable as a result of technology, but everyday life is getting harder, not easier--the opposite of Progress, what I call Anti-Progress.

What if the real source of the unraveling is far deeper than economics or politics? What if the problem is what we see as the inevitable destiny of humanity--Progress--is actually a modern mythology, disconnected from the real-world consequences of growth for growth's sake?

We indignantly reject that Progress is a mythology, but our need for mythology hasn't gone away because we've mastered technology; we've created a modern mythology of technology that is heedless of its own consequences.

To truly progress, we need a new mythology aligned to 21st century realities. Read the Introduction and first chapter for free

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"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity."
(Douglas MacArthur)

"We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle)

"Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson)

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.)

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"The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley)

"A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS)

"Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte)

"The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu)

"Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur)

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill)

"Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi)

"The realm of gratitude is boundless." (CHS, 11/25/15)

"History doesn't have a reverse gear." (CHS, 12/22/15)

Smith's Law of Conservation of Risk: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)(thanks to Lew G. for retitling the idea.)

Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only.

The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16)

My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me)

"We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16)

"Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16)

"Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16)

"Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17)

"We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18)

"Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas)

"Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB)

"When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19)

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"Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19)

"Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22)

"Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22)

"The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22)

"There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22)

"Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22)

"When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22)

"It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23)

"Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24)

"We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24)

"It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W.

"Looking younger is mere technique; thinking younger demands creativity." CHS (10/16/24)

"Tell me what's taboo and I'll tell you the truths that threaten the status quo." CHS (12/15/24)

"This is the core of the Attention Economy: the ultimate addiction is the addiction to ourselves." CHS (1/28/25)

"If You Seek the Truth, Look for What's Taboo." CHS (7/18/25)

"My definition of self-reliance: the less you need, the easier it is to get what you need." CHS (7/26/25)

"Mastery requires reading and doing." CHS (7/28/25)

"The replacement of authentic value, quality, agency, choice, trust, legitimacy and experience with self-serving facsimiles is the key dynamic of Ultra-Processed Life, my term for the present-day human condition." CHS (8/12/25)

"Ultra-Processed Life replaces an authentic experience with a synthetic, simulated, commoditized, highly profitable version that's superficially attractive but destructive over the long term." CHS (8/12/25)

"What we see everywhere is the replacement of authentic things--including democracy--with synthetic facsimiles designed to maintain the illusion of choice and value." CHS (8/12/25)

"Sometimes certainty is the enemy we don't even see and uncertainty is our most faithful ally." CHS (9/20/25)

"Sanitized, homogenized, synthesized Ultra-Processed Life isn't more fun; it's just more profitable." CHS (4/6/26)

"AI is ultra-processed cognition." CHS (4/6/26)

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