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Sell Now: Here's Why April 17, 2026
Fear moves fast enough to get inside our OODA loop--observe, orient, decide, act--so we decide and act only after the damage has been done.
The dynamics discussed here have nothing to do with the headlines of the past few weeks or months, or with geopolitics or stock market gyrations. These dynamics have been at work for years or decades, and now the banquet of consequences is finally being served, and we each get a seat whether we want one or not. In Hawaii, calabash uncle (or auntie) describes a friend who is so close to the family that he/she is like a family member. In many cases, the calabash uncle/aunt has spent far more time with the kids than the blood-relations uncles and aunts. I am a calabash uncle to my old friend's two sons, having spent quality time with them from their infancy to their current age (mid-40s). I've shared vastly more time with them, together and as individuals, than their father's brother. One of the sons is an entrepreneur who with his wife is busy raising two young daughters and expanding their enterprise. Recently, they bought a parcel of land in the Pacific Northwest near their current home with an old farmhouse that they consider their "dream homestead." They've already planted an impressively diverse "food forest" of trees, and are planning a complete renovation of the old farmhouse, parts of which were built in the 1800s. All of this activity involves long-term leases of commercial space and home mortgages--major debt and lease commitments that are essentially equivalent to debt, as the lease must be paid regardless of how the business is doing. The parents are actively engaged with their sons and their families, so my role is peripheral. But I do feel a responsibility to each family member, and I concluded that I would not be serving this son's best interests by remaining silent about what I see coming financially and economically, given the risks that accompany debt. So I laid out the case to sell now to reduce or eliminate debt / obligations. My point was the one essential strategy to survive a deep, prolonged recession is to act decisively before it's too late to sell--to get ahead of the crowd before they realize the economy they assumed was stable and risk-on is unraveling faster than they thought possible. I was careful not to claim predictive powers. I couched it in these terms: "I'm not saying this is going to be right. What I'm saying is: if you see these things start happening, then those are solid reasons to expect a recession that's deeper and longer than most people think possible, and respond accordingly." In other words: pay close attention to the key signals and don't get distracted by noise. The key signals include the entire credit system: what's going on with lenders and borrowers, how risk is being distributed or masked, what's going on beneath the surface. For example: this is not a sign of a healthy economy. Record Numbers of Workers Are Raiding Their 401(k) Savings (wsj.com). Investment funds cutting off redemptions / return of your capital is not a sign of a healthy financial system. The noise is all the indicators that are easily gamed or inherently flawed: growth (GDP), inflation, unemployment, the stock market. What's harder to game are bond yields and interest rates, because the price of these are "discovered" by the risk intrinsic to sinking cash into a risk asset (and every asset is a risk asset) or lending money. Once cash is sunk in an asset, the owner could lose money should the asset's market value drop. Once a loan has been originated, the lender could lose money of the borrower defaults. I described these dynamics in recent posts: Paging Nostradamus: You Have a Margin Call and This Polycrisis Is Unique: 1. Recessions don't replicate the last recession; they tend to track the recessions before the last recession. 2. A unique confluence of long-term cycles and waves is occurring in 2026-27, which will generate consequences / second-order effects far beyond this two-year time frame. Since I experienced the market declines / recessions of 1973-5, 1980-83, 1991-92, 2000-03 and 2008-09, and was actively exposed to the downsides as a self-employed / entrepreneur, I wanted to share what happens in a recession that few seem to highlight: the door slams shut faster than anyone thinks possible, due to the recency bias of "good times" and stable markets. Here is how I described this dynamic: "People are using debt to maintain their spending, and when they hit the wall, spending drops suddenly. The same thing happens in real estate: the door suddenly slams shut. Sales plummet, lending tightens--nobody's buying because the economy is making them cautious." I explained how those trying to sell their house get trapped by recency bias: they fail to lower their price to conditions as they are now (deteriorating fast), and then the door slams shut and they can only sell at fire-sale prices: "It's human nature to think the highest recent price is 'the real value of my house,' but in a recession coupled with high interest rates, the only sales that close are those where the seller dropped their asking price a lot. So the house was worth $850K in good times, and so the seller lowers their asking price to $825K. The only way to sell it is to get ahead of the trend and drop it to $775K or even $750K. The people who think prices will rebound end up being foreclosed or selling for $550K. If this seems unreal, I followed markets very closely from 2005 on, and that's why my blog took off: I was being realistic because I'd lived through 1973-75 and 1980-83, and I saw how the door slams shut faster than anyone thinks possible. Credit dries up, and that reduces spending and makes it very difficult to re-finance anything, no matter how good your credit." I ended with this simple advice: sell now. Sell whatever it takes to liquidate debt, because it's harder for bad things to happen when you have no debt, and greed is a wonderful motivator but fear works much faster. (Put another way: fear moves fast enough to get inside our OODA loop--observe, orient, decide, act--so we decide and act only after the damage has been done.) I shared the personal experiences that inform my context / orientation: "I was living on fumes in 1973-74 and only survived 1980-83 because I had no debt and a low-cost of living." In summary: sell now because: 1. It's harder for bad things to happen when you have no debt. 2. Greed is a wonderful motivator but fear works much faster. 3. Fear moves fast enough to get inside our OODA loop--observe, orient, decide, act--so we decide and act only after the damage has been done. What happens in a recession / financial crisis is greed is quickly replaced by fear. This is one of our core survival instincts. That transition is the door slamming shut: everything that was possible in the risk-on euphoria of greed becomes impossible in the risk-off wilderness of fear. 
My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free) Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com Subscribe to my Substack for free My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. THE REVOLUTION TRILOGY: Investing In Revolution Ultra-Processed Life The Mythology of Progress Systemic Problems/Solutions Investing In Revolution (2025) Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress (2024) Introduction (free) Global Crisis, National Renewal (2021) Introduction (free) Money and Work Unchained (2017) Introduction (free) A Radically Beneficial World (2015) Introduction (free) What You Can Do Yourself Ultra-Processed Life (2025) Introduction (free) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century (2022) Introduction (free) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal (2022) Introduction (free) Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy (2014) Intro (free) Novels The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher Intro (free) The Secret Life of an Asian Heroine First chapters (free) Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Investing In Revolution print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (145 pages, 2025) 
Only now do we see that we've been investing in revolution for decades--not the revolutions we thought we were investing in, revolutions in technology and finance, but in the social revolution made inevitable by the extremes that we've reached in our single-minded pursuit of private gains.
The pendulum that we've pushed to an extreme will swing to the opposite extreme, and the artifices that have propped up a facade a stability for decades will accelerate the disorder rather than reverse it. We now stand at the point of decision, and this book offers a path to a reformation and renewal that serves the shared interests of us all, not just the few. Introduction (free) Ultra-Processed Life print $16, (Kindle $7.95, audiobook, Hardcover $20 (129 pages, 2025) 
Ultra-Processed Life: the substitution of a synthetic, commoditized, very profitable facsimile for what was once authentic.
Ultra-Processed Life is my term for everything that is analogous to ultra-processed snacks: attractively marketed, instantly alluring, easy to consume, addictive by design, tasty in the moment but harmful over time, its origins a black box of unknown processes, the brightly colored product bearing no resemblance to the real-world ingredients, an idealized form of what is inherently imperfect, untethered from the natural world. As with many others, the catalyst for my exploration was a life-threatening medical crisis that did not have a specific cause. This led me to wonder if our entire way of life is like an ultra-processed snack: tasty but not healthy, edible but stripped of the nutrients we need to be healthy, addictive by design. Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $20, (Kindle $9.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) audiobook, Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) 
What if the policies to accelerate growth are no longer working because our fix for every problem--growth at any cost--is failing? We're told Progress is inevitable as a result of technology, but everyday life is getting harder, not easier--the opposite of Progress, what I call Anti-Progress.
What if the real source of the unraveling is far deeper than economics or politics? What if the problem is what we see as the inevitable destiny of humanity--Progress--is actually a modern mythology, disconnected from the real-world consequences of growth for growth's sake? We indignantly reject that Progress is a mythology, but our need for mythology hasn't gone away because we've mastered technology; we've created a modern mythology of technology that is heedless of its own consequences. To truly progress, we need a new mythology aligned to 21st century realities. Read the Introduction and first chapter for free
Recent entries: Sell Now: Here's Why April 17, 2026 College Graduates Are Losing the Clone War April 15, 2026 I'll Turn Bullish When This Happens April 13, 2026 Welcome to the Theater of the Absurd April 10, 2026 Automating Our Dependence Will Cripple Us April 9, 2026 Our Post-Truth, Post-Trust World April 8, 2026 Oil, Inflation and Recession April 6, 2026 The Inevitability of the AI Depression April 3, 2026 Disney World's New Theme Park: The White House and Congress April 1, 2026 The "Good News" Is Always the Same: the Stock Market Is Up--Until It Isn't March 30, 2026 Is a "Democracy" That's For Sale Still a Democracy? No, It's an Oligarchy March 27, 2026 The Illusion of the Shortcut (Self-Employment Series) March 25, 2026 The AI Depression March 24, 2026 Risk and Privilege March 23, 2026 Welcome to the Stockyard of Unaffordability March 20, 2026 Why Credit Creates Bubbles That Break the Economy March 18, 2026
Why AI Malware (and Harmful Second Order Effects) Are Out of Control
March 16, 2026
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"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity." (Douglas MacArthur) "We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle) "Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson) "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.) "He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones) "When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac) "Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger) "Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam) "The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley) "A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS) "Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte) "The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu) "Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur) "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill) "Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi) "The realm of gratitude is boundless." (CHS, 11/25/15) "History doesn't have a reverse gear." (CHS, 12/22/15) Smith's Law of Conservation of Risk: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)(thanks to Lew G. for retitling the idea.) Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only. The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16) My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me) "We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16) "Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16) "Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16) "Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17) "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18) "Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas) "Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB) "When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19) "Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau) "Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19) "Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22) "Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22) "The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22) "There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22) "Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22) "When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22) "It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23) "Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24) "We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24) "It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W. "Looking younger is mere technique; thinking younger demands creativity." CHS (10/16/24) "Tell me what's taboo and I'll tell you the truths that threaten the status quo." CHS (12/15/24) "This is the core of the Attention Economy: the ultimate addiction is the addiction to ourselves." CHS (1/28/25) "If You Seek the Truth, Look for What's Taboo." CHS (7/18/25) "My definition of self-reliance: the less you need, the easier it is to get what you need." CHS (7/26/25) "Mastery requires reading and doing." CHS (7/28/25) "The replacement of authentic value, quality, agency, choice, trust, legitimacy and experience with self-serving facsimiles is the key dynamic of Ultra-Processed Life, my term for the present-day human condition." CHS (8/12/25) "Ultra-Processed Life replaces an authentic experience with a synthetic, simulated, commoditized, highly profitable version that's superficially attractive but destructive over the long term." CHS (8/12/25) "What we see everywhere is the replacement of authentic things--including democracy--with synthetic facsimiles designed to maintain the illusion of choice and value." CHS (8/12/25) "Sometimes certainty is the enemy we don't even see and uncertainty is our most faithful ally." CHS (9/20/25) "Sanitized, homogenized, synthesized Ultra-Processed Life isn't more fun; it's just more profitable." CHS (4/6/26) "AI is ultra-processed cognition." CHS (4/6/26) |
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