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Channeling Napoleon and Chou En-Lai January 5, 2026
Where things will stand in three years in unknown. A little humility might serve us well, for it is indeed too soon to tell about a great many things.
Recent events call two quotes to mind, one from Napoleon Bonaparte and one from Chou En-Lai. Napoleon: "Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." Chou En-Lai: "It's too soon to tell." The current backdrop is one of simplistic declarations presented as certainties because these are rewarded by the algorithms. Remarkably, few of those confidently declaring their implicit expertise ever acknowledge the limits of their own knowledge and the limits of the Ultra-Processed "facts" presented by the various interests seeking to control the context, narrative and agenda. I reckon it fair to say that Napoleon was well-placed to survey the limits of force. That he is reputed to have observed "There are only two powers in the world: the spirit and the sword. In the long run, the sword will always be conquered by the spirit" makes sense in the context of the limits of the sword and other manifestations of force. The phrase in the long run brings us to Chou En-Lai's "It's too soon to tell." Chou En-Lai (Zhou Enlai) was the People's Republic of China's first foreign minister and Premier, the statesman / diplomat who guided foreign policy while surviving Mao's tumultuous purges. In the usual telling, while meeting with American officials during President Nixon's February, 1972 visit to China, Zhou was asked (in some tellings by Henry Kissinger, in others by Nixon) what he thought of the French Revolution, which occurred some 180 years earlier in 1789-1793. Zhou's reply--"It's too soon to tell"--is presented as evidence of China's long game perspective that reflects China's long history and sagacious avoidance of rash judgments. The real story is different but equally insightful. According to the American diplomat who was present during the famous conversation, the question was posed in a general sense, and since the participants in France's May 1968 general strike had contextualized those events in the language of the French Revolution and the 1871 Commune, Zhou interpreted the question as referring to the May 1968 uprising--a mere three-plus years before. "It is too soon to tell"--the real story China fact of the day. This doesn't detract from Zhou's sagacity. Events that are initially characterized by simplistic pronouncements often turn out quite differently from the expectations of those elevating superficialities to grandiose certainties. I first visited the Shanghai residence of Zhou Enlai in 2000 (photo below) when it was a lightly visited historical site that preserved much of the period's furniture and artifacts--including the battered suitcase Zhou had used on his overseas missions. Numerous books--most recently, The Party's Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping--have documented the difficulties faced by loyalists such as Zhou in surviving Mao's mercurial purges and precipitous humiliations of senior officials in his inner circle. Visiting Zhou's home in Shanghai's leafy French Concession humanizes a historical figure of the sort who who are all too easily turned into abstractions. 
The same can be said of entire cultures and nations. What amazes me is the ease with which commentators implicitly claim sufficient expertise about a nation, region or geopolitical puzzle to make grand categorical statements about the situation without actually knowing any people who actually live in those places. This profound ignorance of actual individuals' experience permeates the simplistic, catastrophically misguided tropes that pass for "policy" and "insight" in an era stripped of nuance and humility about the limits not just of force but of our own knowledge. I'm amazed that pundits routinely claim sufficient knowledge to render judgments about complex cultures they know little or nothing about. In my experience, knowing a Syrian family, or families from Venezuela--and knowing full well that these individuals may not be representative of the entire culture or nation--offers an essential insight that abstractions and numbers cannot: these are real people being displaced, and real lives being upended or shattered. Practically everyone is now an expert on China, it seems, yet few of those quick to make blanket statements actually have any Chinese friends who trust them enough to share their own experiences of the Cultural Revolution over a home-cooked meal. This readiness to take abstractions as expertise should give us pause, because we've seen where this leads: arrogance masking abysmal ignorance and ideology replacing experiential knowledge with simplistic canards that can only generate errors of the most profound variety. Ideology of any stripe is no substitute for knowledge gained from long, careful study and personal experience. A recent book traces out how supreme confidence in the abstractions of "management" and "statistical analysis" and in the powers of the sword led to the killing fields of Vietnam: McNamara at War: A New History. We can discern the usual misplaced self-confidence and hubris of "the best and the brightest," of course, but we can also see the subversive weight of sunk costs, as withdrawing from a deployment of force that has already cost the nation credibility, treasure and lives is viewed as sending all the wrong messages of admitting error and weakness. And so the policy remains doing more of what's failed. The fact that was always overlooked was the leadership's complete ignorance of Vietnam's complex history and culture. Safe and secure in a world of abstractions, it's easy to assume knowledge of abstractions is a satisfactory replacement for real knowledge. By the time this is revealed as catastrophically wrong, it's too late. What's remarkable is how little humility about the limits of our knowledge is ever expressed by all those making simplistic, ideologically inspired blanket statements. There are uncertainties in what's being presented, and unknowns that are glossed over to project confidence and certainty. Where things will stand in three years in unknown. A little humility might serve us well, for it is indeed too soon to tell about a great many things. A great many unexpected things can happen in three years. My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free) Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com Subscribe to my Substack for free My recent books: Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site. THE REVOLUTION TRILOGY: Investing In Revolution Ultra-Processed Life The Mythology of Progress Systemic Problems/Solutions Investing In Revolution (2025) Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress (2024) Introduction (free) Global Crisis, National Renewal (2021) Introduction (free) Money and Work Unchained (2017) Introduction (free) A Radically Beneficial World (2015) Introduction (free) What You Can Do Yourself Ultra-Processed Life (2025) Introduction (free) Self-Reliance in the 21st Century (2022) Introduction (free) When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal (2022) Introduction (free) Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy (2014) Intro (free) Novels The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher Intro (free) The Secret Life of an Asian Heroine First chapters (free) Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free Investing In Revolution print $18, (Kindle $8.95, Hardcover $24 (145 pages, 2025) 
Only now do we see that we've been investing in revolution for decades--not the revolutions we thought we were investing in, revolutions in technology and finance, but in the social revolution made inevitable by the extremes that we've reached in our single-minded pursuit of private gains.
The pendulum that we've pushed to an extreme will swing to the opposite extreme, and the artifices that have propped up a facade a stability for decades will accelerate the disorder rather than reverse it. We now stand at the point of decision, and this book offers a path to a reformation and renewal that serves the shared interests of us all, not just the few. Introduction (free) Ultra-Processed Life print $16, (Kindle $7.95, audiobook, Hardcover $20 (129 pages, 2025) 
Ultra-Processed Life: the substitution of a synthetic, commoditized, very profitable facsimile for what was once authentic.
Ultra-Processed Life is my term for everything that is analogous to ultra-processed snacks: attractively marketed, instantly alluring, easy to consume, addictive by design, tasty in the moment but harmful over time, its origins a black box of unknown processes, the brightly colored product bearing no resemblance to the real-world ingredients, an idealized form of what is inherently imperfect, untethered from the natural world. As with many others, the catalyst for my exploration was a life-threatening medical crisis that did not have a specific cause. This led me to wonder if our entire way of life is like an ultra-processed snack: tasty but not healthy, edible but stripped of the nutrients we need to be healthy, addictive by design. Introduction (free) The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century print $20, (Kindle $9.95, Hardcover $24 (215 pages, 2024) audiobook, Read the Introduction and first chapter for free (PDF) 
What if the policies to accelerate growth are no longer working because our fix for every problem--growth at any cost--is failing? We're told Progress is inevitable as a result of technology, but everyday life is getting harder, not easier--the opposite of Progress, what I call Anti-Progress.
What if the real source of the unraveling is far deeper than economics or politics? What if the problem is what we see as the inevitable destiny of humanity--Progress--is actually a modern mythology, disconnected from the real-world consequences of growth for growth's sake? We indignantly reject that Progress is a mythology, but our need for mythology hasn't gone away because we've mastered technology; we've created a modern mythology of technology that is heedless of its own consequences. To truly progress, we need a new mythology aligned to 21st century realities. Read the Introduction and first chapter for free
Recent entries: Channeling Napoleon and Chou En-Lai January 5, 2026 Pretense, Staging, Expediency: the "Solutions" That Implode the Whole Shebang January 1, 2026 Everyone's a Lender Now: Shadow Banking USA December 29, 2025 The Good News Is People Are Realizing We're On Our Own December 26, 2025 My Christmas Letter December 23, 2025 Insane Financial Imbalances and Social Revolution December 19, 2025 All the Dominant Models Are Collapsing December 17, 2025 The Wile E. Coyote Insight: What We "Know" Is More Dangerous Than the Unknown December 15, 2025 The Perilous Journey Ahead December 13, 2025 How We Fail: The Empire Is Forever December 11, 2025
Why We Fail
December 9, 2025
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Extra-Special Bonus Aphorisms:
"There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity." (Douglas MacArthur) "We are what we repeatedly do." (Aristotle) "Do the thing and you shall have the power." (Ralph Waldo Emerson) "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction." (E.F. Schumacher, via Tom R.) "He who will not risk cannot win." (John Paul Jones) "When we drink coffee, ideas march in like the army." (Honore de Balzac) "Progress is not possible without deviation." (Frank Zappa, via Richard Metzger) "Victory favors those who take pains." (amat victoria curam) "The man who has a garden and a library has everything." (Cicero, via Lee Bentley) "A healthy homecooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts." (CHS) "Do you know what amazes me more than anything else? The impotence of force to organize anything." (Napoleon Bonaparte) "The way of the Tao is reversal" Or "Reversal is the movement of Tao." (Lao Tzu) "Chance favours the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur) "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." (Winston Churchill) "Where there is ruin, there is hope for treasures." (Rumi) "The realm of gratitude is boundless." (CHS, 11/25/15) "History doesn't have a reverse gear." (CHS, 12/22/15) Smith's Law of Conservation of Risk: Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some consequences will be intended, some will not. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. (July 8, 2014)(thanks to Lew G. for retitling the idea.) Smith's Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only. The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law (The Network Effect): the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network. (CHS, 4/6/16) My Credo of Liberation: I no longer care if the power centers of our society--the distant, fortified castles of our financial feudal system--are changed by my actions, for I am liberated by the act of resistance. I am no longer complicit in perpetuating fraudulent feudalism and the pathology of concentrated power. I no longer covet signifiers of membership in the Upper Caste that serves the plutocracy. I am liberated from self-destructive consumerist-State financialization and the delusion that debt servitude and obedience to sociopathological Elites serve my self-interests. (Thank you, Klaus-Peter L., for reminding me) "We've become a culture of excuses rather than solutions: solutions always require sustained effort and discipline." (CHS 4/9/16) "Fraud as a way of life caters an extravagant banquet of consequences." (CHS 4/14/16) "Creativity = problem solving = value creation." (CHS 6/4/16) "Truth is powerful because it is the core dynamic of solving problems." (CHS 7/21/17) "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." (CHS 1/1/18) "Always remember, your focus determines your reality." (George Lucas) "Diversity is for poor people. Sameness is for the successful." (GFB) "When power dissipates suddenly, it dissipates completely." (CHS 7/14/19) "Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves." (Henry David Thoreau) "Markets cannot price in the value of non-monetized natural assets such as diverse ecosystems." (CHS 7/14/19) "Magical thinking isn't optimism, it is folly." CHS 1/3/22) "Tune in (to self-reliance), drop out (of hyper-consumerism and debt-serfdom) and turn on (to relocalizing capital and agency)." (CHS 1/5/22) "The path to everything you desire starts here: like yourself as you are right now." (CHS 11/20/22) "There are only two signals: how many essentials you produce and share and if you're consuming less with better results. Everything else is noise." (CHS 12/17/22) "Liberation is no longer needing any confirmation or feedback from others or the world for one's sense of self. Wealth, fame, recognition, admiration, praise, prestige, approval, sainthood, martyrdom, success: none are needed, none are desired." (CHS 12/26/22) "When fame, wealth, prestige, status and glory are out of reach, you're free to pursue other more valuable things." (CHS 2/6/22) "It is the sacred duty of every activist who seeks to better their community to grow and share as much life-giving food as is humanly possible." (CHS 6/15/23) "Being anonymous, gray and unknown is the ideal state of freedom." (CHS 3/15/24) "We seem to have entered a world of anti-leisure and anti-productivity in which the unpaid shadow work demanded to keep all the complicated digital bits in motion obliterate our leisure and productivity." CHS (5/22/24) "It is axiomatic that failing systems work the best just before they fail catastrophically." Ray W. "Looking younger is mere technique; thinking younger demands creativity." CHS (10/16/24) "Tell me what's taboo and I'll tell you the truths that threaten the status quo." CHS (12/15/24) "This is the core of the Attention Economy: the ultimate addiction is the addiction to ourselves." CHS (1/28/25) "If You Seek the Truth, Look for What's Taboo." CHS (7/18/25) "My definition of self-reliance: the less you need, the easier it is to get what you need." CHS (7/26/25) "Mastery requires reading and doing." CHS (7/28/25) "The replacement of authentic value, quality, agency, choice, trust, legitimacy and experience with self-serving facsimiles is the key dynamic of Ultra-Processed Life, my term for the present-day human condition." CHS (8/12/25) "Ultra-Processed Life replaces an authentic experience with a synthetic, simulated, commoditized, highly profitable version that's superficially attractive but destructive over the long term." CHS (8/12/25) "What we see everywhere is the replacement of authentic things--including democracy--with synthetic facsimiles designed to maintain the illusion of choice and value." CHS (8/12/25) "Sometimes certainty is the enemy we don't even see and uncertainty is our most faithful ally." CHS (9/20/25) |
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