What's Obvious III: Some Transformations Will Be Positive (February 19, 2009)
With so many downtrends in place and anxiety understandably rising, we should recall that most feedback loops are self-correcting. Broken systems will be transformed, not neatly, but messily, via multiple feedbacks; trends reverse and much of the change, however wrenching, will be positive.
It is extremely easy to extend any trendline indefinitely into the future. Thus just as the bogus "prosperity" of the past decade was expected to last forever, now the trends toward dissolution and crisis seem irreversible.
But "the Way of the Tao is reversal," and we can expect the meltdown/Depression to usher in necessary reforms and transformations.
I recently received missives from two correspondents on just this subject. Longtime contributor Harun I. made these observations:
Currently, the U.S. government and its population en masse is experiencing cognitive dissonance which is causing cognitive distortions. Either we undergo a voluntary cognitive reconstruction that leads to more productive behavior or it will be forced upon us.
Correspondent Richard Metzger foresees very positive outcomes from the wreckage of failed institutions and policies:
I so totally see the upside to this mess. I see it to the point where I feel utter and total *revolutionary* joy and excitement. I'm not depressed or even that apprehensive, I feel energized. Like I am about to join a street parade. True euphoria. The feeling of certainty, that I was born the right year!Thank you, Harun and Richard, for these insightful commentaries.
If asked for a concrete example, I would turn to the failed "healthcare" system in the U.S. When 40 million mostly poor, politically inactive people lack any coherent healthcare coverage, then the political effect is essentially zero. But when 10-20 million formerly middle-class people join the ranks of the uninsured as the economy declines, then the political pressure to transform the current dysfunctional snarl will rise to the point that fiddling while Rome burns-- the preferred option of all players--is no longer a political option.
The cries of various sacred cows being gored will be deafening.
"This guy is THE leading visionary on reality.
He routinely discusses things which no one else has talked about, yet,
turn out to be quite relevant months later."
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