I Was Wrong About Everything (January 23, 2012)
I was wrong: doing more of the same has solved all our problems.
Time for a mea maxima culpa: I've been wrong about everything: the stock market, the economy, globalization, energy, everything. Heck, I've even been wrong about the American diet and poor fitness; it's now clear that ice cream sundaes are health food that have been shown to extend life dramatically. Fast food is nutritious and cheap, a great combination, and there is basically nothing in the mind-body that can't be fixed in a jiffy with a handful of pills, all of which are almost free once you qualify for government healthcare programs.
The economy has not just dodged recession, it's in full-blown recovery. The only two indicators that are going down are the VIX volatility index, which might just fall to near-zero as investors realize there's no longer any downside in the market and therefore no need to buy hedges, and the unemployment rate, which is steadily declining.
2012 is like 1956, 1964, 1984 and 1996: the economy is booming, and a sitting president has wisely overseen the application of brilliant policies by the Pentagon, the State and Treasury departments and the Federal Reserve. The policies were simple: when "more of the same" didn't work, do even more of the same. That did the trick in everything from waging war to finding new energy sources to stabilizing the financial and housing markets.
This quote from President Calvin Coolidge neatly sums up 2012: If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you. All we as a nation had to do to get through the rough patch of 2007-2011 was just do more of what we were doing before. And voila, all our troubles ran into the ditch. We have abundant energy, expanding opportunity, a growing economy, limitless credit and enjoy the highest possible levels of political liberty and human freedom.
And it's now obvious that this renewed prosperity will easily last to 2022 and beyond. The only question for the coming decade is how much better everything will be for everyone in 2022. As we all know, expanding opportunity and prosperity enable everyone to solve whatever problems arise in their lives.
Who remembers the critics and naysayers of 1956, 1964, 1984 and 1996? Nobody. In times of stable, permanent prosperity like 2012, the only problems left are of the trivial sort, such as American policy via a vis Botswana or which reality TV show is better. Since all the critically important policies and institutions are working smoothly, then we are free to pursue our own interests and desires without having to concern ourselves with larger issues.
Since our institutions are all functioning efficiently and transparently, and permanent prosperity, global stability and a rising market have returned in force, then there's really nothing left for me to do here. As the markets have demonstrated, virtually every asset class can now rise together: precious metals are in a long uptrend, real estate has bottomed and is now in recovery mode, stocks and bonds are both rising. Now that historical inverse correlations have been decisively broken, then everything can go up together: commodities, currencies, real estate, stocks, bonds, 'roo bellies, you name it.
The return of stable, permanent prosperity generated by visibly successful policies and institutions leaves me a choice: I can wallow in negativity as a bitter naysayer, or I can showcase photos of adorable puppies and kittens.
Since all our big problems have been resolved by simply doing more of the same, then there is nothing of importance left to analyze or discuss. All remaining issues are inconsequential, the equivalent of debating which is better, Bud or Bud Lite. Since I value my happiness above all else, I am opting out of naysaying and going with the photos of adorable puppies and kittens.
I considered finding some technology to fawn over, i.e. Windows 8 or 9 or 13 or whatever is being released next, or futurist nanotechnology robots that chew through clogged arteries or the iPad 3 or something like that, but there are already millions of sites fawning over technology. On the other hand, there can never be enough sites showcasing photos of adorable puppies and kittens.
If this recession strikes you as different from previous downturns, you might
be interested in my new book
An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times (print edition)
Kindle ebook format. You can read the ebook on any
computer, smart phone, iPad, etc. Click here for links to Kindle apps and Chapter One.
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